Hilarious!

http://www.themonkeycage.org/2008/12/post_149.html

Samuel P. Huntington

Zane notes that Samuel P. Huntington, the grand old man of Comparative
Politics, died at age 81 on the 27th of December. I'm a little
behind--spending time with Emily and all while here in the states (also
getting my fill of fast food and skiing, among other things)--so I only
read about it today.

If you're so inclined, Huntington's (terrible) Wikipedia entry is here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_P._Huntington

The page really focuses on critiques of Huntington, leaving out almost
entirely his most important ideas (in my opinion), which are really in
his earlier work. Still, it has some useful links.

I'm especially fond of _Political Order in Changing Societies_, which
was something of a rebuttal to the Modernization theory popular in the
United States in the 1950s and 1960s. Huntington essentially argues
that "modernization" doesn't always produce desirable results. Instead,
if it isn't accompanied by an increase in the strength and capacity of
government, the result can be violence.

Broadly (and that's the way to look at Huntington's work), I think he
was right. "Modernization" produces demands on government, and if the
government isn't capable of fulfilling those demands, the result can be
civil war, insurgency, or other un-pretty things.

Huntington's work is what I like to call "macro-historical analysis"--I
didn't come up with that phrase, I picked it up somewhere else along the
way--but essentially, he tries to interpret the major trends of
history. It isn't always pretty, methodologically rigorous, or right,
but this is a guy who started writing before most Political Scientists
alive today were out of elementary school (at least), and the fancy
methodologies we sometimes use today hadn't been developed, or hadn't
been adopted to Political Science when he started publishing.

Coleman v. Franken

Given the internal democracy that exists in both the Republican and
Democratic parties in the US, this might actually be a good solution to
the Minnesota issue:

http://www.weeklyworldnews.com/politics/rock-paper-scissors-senate/

I'm in Lima...

...after nervously waiting for my flight, hoping Cuzco's weather would
hold out. Because of the altitude (something like 13,000 ft.) it's easy
for flights to be canceled, even due to rain.

I celebrated by eating dinner out, getting a burger and fries (but no
fried cheese or Yucca) at Bembo's, everybody's favorite Peruvian burger
chain.

I also had a pancake with ice cream.

Here in Peru, pancakes are always on the dessert menu. In Guatemala,
they're the main meal, but usually for breakfast or dinner (no
difference between those two meals, really).

One beneficial outcome of possible US-Latin American cultural syncretism
will be a situation where you can eat pancakes three times a day, and
either for the main meal or dessert. Possibly the main meal and dessert.

That, truly, would be progress.

Some Good News

According to Bolivia's best newspaper, _La Razon_, the Peruvian economy
grew about 10% this year. This is great, especially because this growth
isn't concentrated in minerals and other commodities.

Certainly, Peru _seems_ to be growing like crazy, although the growth is
very concentrated in the urban areas, especially in Lima. Get out of
Cuzco a couple miles and you're living in the 18th century. Except for
the cell phones. And soccer.

Fiscal Stimulus

Mankiw weighs in again:

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/12/let-rent-seeking-begin.html

Mankiw suggests that giving people stimulus checks will be better (note
that he doesn't use the term "more efficient") than giving money to
public works projects like zoos.

But would somebody please tell me why it's less desirable for us to
spend on zoos than it is to spend on electric teakettles and iPods? (I
happen to like the zoo, as do the approximately 31,000 people who visit
the Denver zoo every weekend). And I happen to think their social value
is much greater than the junk people will buy with their stimulus check.

Okay, I kid about the electric teakettles and iPod. But here's my opinion:

Stimulus projets will employ people that otherwise wouldn't have been
employed. So will stimulus checks. There is some debate about the
extent to which each of these types of stimuli will improve the
economy--if I understand correctly, economists disagree on the
multiplier effect of each type of stimulus. Still, they will both put
money in the economy and increase employment.

There are two important differences, however, in my opinion, between
these two forms of stimulus.

The initial effects of these stimuli will be different. The stimulus
checks would go to everyone. New employment through economic stimulus
projects will be more likely to provide work to people who are
unemployed at the moment. I think this is important:

Although I would love to get another stimulus check, the fact of the
matter is that I don't need the money (don't tell Emily I said that).
I'm always happy to have more money, but I don't need it as much as
somebody who just lost their job. I'm covered for a while--at least
until I get out of school.

Ironically, that stimulus check really isn't going to help the guy or
gal who just lost their job. A couple hundred dollars will be nice, but
it won't compensate them for the economic, or the psychological cost of
having lost a job.

Having a job at a public works project, however, will. That will help
them put food on the table and put their kids through school.

Of course, there is always more "waste" and less "efficiency," in an
economic sense, when the government picks winners. But in another
sense, giving $600 to somebody who doesn't derive much utility from that
money (like me) is pretty inefficient. I'd rather my $600 goes to
somebody who needs it.

The second difference is sustainability. Not in an ecological sense--I
mean sustainability in terms of the long-term benefits of public works
projects.

Take zoos, for example. Zoos are beneficial in a lot of ways. They
educate people, they provide entertainment in a desirable way (as
opposed to, say, watching _The Young and the Restless_), and once these
public works projects are completed, they will provide these social
benefits over the long term.

On the other hand, you send me $600, and I'll buy an iPhone. iPhones
are cool. And useful. But they don't provide the same educational,
recreational, or social benefits as zoos. Maybe I'm not as rational or
as efficient as a lot of other people, but I bet that buying toys like
that will be what a lot of other people will do to.

Frankly, that just isn't as good as employing people who lost a job and
need to provide for their families.

I'm dreaming of a green christmas...

Spent the day in the District of Huerta, Anta Province, outside of Cusco
(Cuzco/Qosqo). The family I'm staying with here has been funding a
school out there for the local kids, and they had a Christmas
celebration for them today.

I got a lot of pictures of the incredibly cute local kids. I'll post
them in my Picasa account, and I'll put a link in the sidebar. There
are also a couple of poor-quality videos.

Most of the pictures I took, but the best ones were actually taken by a
couple of the kids who were really interested in playing with my camera.

Among other things, the day included a (creepy) clown, cake and other
snacks, hot chocolate (the real stuff), and a fair share of games and a
lot of getting kissed on the cheek.

One of the things that amazes me about these kids is how poor they are,
and yet how little they seem to act disadvantaged. Kids that don't have
shoes, can't afford school uniforms, and don't get fed regularly. Also,
kids that have never had cake before and have never seen a clown.

Admittedly, that last one is probably a positive thing, if my experience
is any guide...

Another thing that amazes me is the fact that they have no problems
eating marshmallows coated in powdered cheese from chee-to-like snacks.

A third thing that I find amazing is the fact that they just stick the
chee-tos in their pocket for later consumption. Hilarious watching them
pull a handful of mostly-crushed cheese puffs out of a pants pocket.
Also hilarious watching these kids eat the aforementioned cheese puffs.

Weird being in a place that's so green at Christmas time. Beautiful,
though.

Philosophizing on the Size of Government

Mankiw comments on the size of government here:

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/12/crises-and-government.html

Again, I love this guy--he's one of my two favorite economists (and it's
no coincidence that the other one also has a blog).

That said, this really seems like beating a dead horse. Yes, the size
of government has grown since the 1920s. Yes, the increase in the size
of government has been permanent.

That's terrible.

But why?

Mankiw seems to imply that this increase in the size of government has
been undesirable, and if the current crisis leads to a permanent
increase in the size of government, that would be undesirable as well.
It's unclear to me why this would be the case. Do we really want to go
back to the _laissez faire_ model of political economy of the 1920s and
before? I think that most people in the US probably can agree that
things like Social Security, affordable housing, a larger military, and
greater spending on infrastructure (like highways) is good. Most people
(Ron Paul being one prominent recent example) probably don't think those
things are a waste, and most people probably wouldn't like the private
sector to take them over.

If the current crisis results in a bigger government, the _specifics_ of
such an increase will probably include things like (again) greater
spending on infrastructure maintenance (which God only knows we need),
greater spending on green technologies (I have a hard time faulting this
policy expenditure) and a national health care system that (most likely)
will be half as expensive as the one we have now.

I have a hard time faulting _that_ increase in the size of government.

"Big Government" means "Bad Government" to many conservatives. There
are things that government doesn't do very well. But the government of
the United States is pretty good at doing an awful lot of things.

Though in closing, I should add that I mostly voted Libertarian in
Colorado's county and municipal races. I would have voted for the
Prohibition Party, except they only had a presidential candidate, and I
wanted to vote for Obama.

I realize that's a complete contradiction. I feel no need to resolve my
cognitive dissonance.

At this very moment...

...I am listening to Tom Keene of Bloomberg's _On the Economy_
interviewing Oscar the Grouch. I'm not making this up. Apparently,
Oscar the Grouch's favorite guest on Sesame Street was Waylon Jennings.

This is an amazing time we're living in.

Apparently, Sesame Street was banned in its first year in Mississippi,
because it showed an integrated community (Hispanic/Anglo/African
American/Muppet) in a positive light.

They also have a Middle Eastern version (the show was produced in Kuwait
and the tapes were stolen by the Iraqi army during the first Gulf war)
and they have a South African show that features, among other things, an
HIV positive Muppet.

It was a project that came out of the Great Society.

And by the way, this may be another example of one of the ways in which
government projects can beat the market. I'll bet for Sesame Street
over the Flinstones any day.

A couple new pictures

Hey all,

A few new pictures of graffiti up under "Awesome Graffiti" in the sidebar. Click on the profane picture to see them.

Quechua Fusion and Christmas

I've been listening to this Andean band for the last couple of weeks,
called "Alborada," in order to practice my Quechua listening skills.
It's pretty slow and clearly pronounced, so I have an easier time of it
(although I still don't know what's going on most of the time).

The wacky thing is, this is a "Quechua Fusion" band, which is evidently
a fusion of Andean music and new age music. Which makes this music kind
of like listening to Enya with a lot of Zampoña and with words in Quechua.

In other news, I've gotten another haircut today (exciting life,
right?). This one was a little more expensive than the last one,
costing me (after tip) about $1.60.

Looking forward to heading home in about a week for Christmas. I'll be
in Colorado for a couple weeks, getting home on Christmas Eve, then
coming back here on the 12th of January. I'm thrilled to get a little
bit of time with Emily, and I'm also looking forward to getting some
Taco Bell and some skiing in.

I love traveling, and I love Peru, but traveling down here has a way of
making you patriotic for the US. It doesn't take too long dealing with
Peruvian government (or even private) bureaucracy to long for the good
old Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles. And I'm a fan of Inka Kola
and Peruvian burger chain Bembo's, but I miss Qdoba and Taco Bell.

New Pictures

Took a pair of pictures of some political graffiti around town--if
you're interested, click on the picture in the sidebar to take you to my
Picasa photo album.

I apologize for the profanity, but it was too good to pass up.

Is it just me...

...or does Mankiw seem a little bitter?

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/12/etymological-suggestion.html

Don't get me wrong--I love the guy. But, seriously.

Seawiously.

Anyways, wouldn't it be better to call this new individual the
"Automobile People's Committee Chairman," or the "Automotive Doge"?

Merry Christmas

One can never have too much making-fun-of-Sarah-Palinery. Or too much
WWN.

http://www.weeklyworldnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/palinxmascardweb.jpg

James Bond

Finally got around to watching _Quantum of Solace_, which I had been
meaning to see for a while. A good part of the film was made in Chile,
but was set in Bolivia, which teed off both the Bolivians and the
Chileans. It would not be inaccurate to say that both countries (and
the Peruvians, too) have something of a neurosis about the Atacama
desert (where Bond 22 was filmed), since the Bolivians and Peruvians
lost a big chunk of it to the Chileans in the "War of the Pacific" of
1890-ish.

Sometimes, the "War of the Pacific" is called the "Saltpeter War," but I
actually prefer the "Bird Shit War," which is think is both more
descriptive and more poetic.

I enjoyed Daniel Craig's performance as Bond. I didn't see the last
film--Emily said she thought he played a very angry James Bond, but at
least in this film, his performance struck me as more human and a bit
more serious than Brosnan, whose Bond I also liked. But I think I'm a
fan. I think Timothy Dalton still is the best James Bond, but time will
tell...

I should admit that the movie was a little difficult for me to follow,
but this really had more to do with the fact that it was a
German-language version with (badly translated) Spanish subtitles. I
don't know any German, so the only way I know that the film was badly
translated is that the subtitles included Spanish words that, to my
knowledge, do not exist.

I happen to believe that every James Bond film should have skiing, which
Quantum of Solace lacked. A shame.

But I thought the portrayal of Bolivians and Bolivia really were quite
good (though they were really a pretty marginal part of the story).
Bolivians protested the film, fearing it would portray them as corrupt.
Of course, the film portrayed everyone as corrupt, including the US,
members of the British political class and secret service, and, at least
in a way, Bond himself. The portrayal of Bolivian government personnel
was, admittedly, less than kind, but the portrayal of the Andean people,
I thought, was actually pretty complimentary. And realistic.

Defended my prospectus...

...pretty happy to have that out of the way.

In other news:
1. I think I lost my baseball cap somewhere along the way. This means
that I'm stuck wearing my prof. Jones hat.
2. It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas. But only if by
"Christmas," you mean "plastic trees and lots of rain." And panetón,
which is like fruitcake, but fluffier.
3. I'm in the stage of the trip where I'm counting the days down until
I get to be home for a while. For some reason, it always seems like a
good idea to go away for Christmas in the middle of August, but I'm
really glad, at this point, that I'm going to be home in Colorado with
Emily for a couple of days at that time. Christmas here would be lame.
Plus, I'm really looking forward to getting a little bit of skiing in.
4. I'm continually bewildered by the amazing variety of knockoff
Peruvian Oreos of all shapes sizes, brands, and carcinogenic-chemical
content. At the moment, I'm munching on strawberry and vanilla
"rellenas" from "fenix."
5. Had a conversation with Lucy and Ricardo (Familiay Qoqopi--My Cusco
family) about the redecorating they plan to do in the house. Turns out
that they can get ceramic tile for about S/ 16 a square meter. This is
less than 1/10 the cost of ceramic tile in the states, if I'm doing my
math right. The Peruvians are all worried about how they're going to
compete with US firms as the new Peru-US free trade agreement goes into
effect, but I think they're going to do fine. I'm hoping that we start
to get some of this awesome puffed quinoa cereal that I eat every day
for breakfast.
6. I saw some street vendor today making what appeared to be a
waffle-salteña. She had a waffle iron-like thing and was grilling some
sort of veggie/meat stuff into it. Will the wonders never cease?

Con-found the fellow!

Think you all will find this amusing:

http://www.themonkeycage.org/2008/12/post_147.html

Knockoff electronics

The headphones on my iPod stopped working a couple of days ago, so I
went searching for a new pair this afternoon. It took me about an hour
to find a genuine (I think--at least the packaging is pretty convincing
and the sound's pretty good) pair of Philips headphones, but along the
way I spotted the following "brands":

Aima
Somy
Suomi (this would presumably be a Finnish national brand)
Sonia
Sowi
Sonty
Suny

I wish I had the guts to take pictues. The "Sonia"'s were the best.
The packaging even has reasonably good copies of the Sony trademark
lettering.

More Evangelical Christianity

First off, the evangelical Christianity:

I'm a little embarrassed to admit this, after all of my thoughts and
(mild) criticisms of the Evangelical faith, but I had my first
experience with Evangelical church services today. It was Lucy and
Ricardo's graduation from Theological Seminary, and the graduation
ceremony took place during an Evangelical service (of course).

A couple of things were notable about the service.

My church experiences have typically been with the Catholic faith, or
with what I would consider more traditional protestant sects. I think
what that means, really, is that my experiences with church services
have been in churches that are predominant in New England, where I grew
up. I'm Episcopalian (Anglican) at least when it's convenient, and I've
spent a fair amount of time in Catholic, Lutheran, Congregational, and
Methodist churches, among others. But down here, I've only been in
Catholic services, though I've made fun of evangelical services from afar.

I will continue, by the way, to make fun of all flavors of religion.
I'm as open-minded as anyone in that regard.

Anyways, there was far less "O God (Gawd), forgive us for our sins, for
things that we have done and for things that we have left undone..."

There was, however, a lot of exaggerated gesturing, some low-key
speaking in tongues (I believe that's what I witnessed), a pretty good
Christian rock band (a 10 piece band, by the way!), lunch with lots of
Potatoes and no Guinea Pig that I could see, a Disney cartoon about
hookworm, and a theological seminary graduation ceremony.

So, as Emily put it, it was everything that I love all rolled up in
one. Church services and graduation ceremonies. Yeehaw.

Aside from my irrational griping about those two things, the experience
was interesting.

First off, a lot of indigenous apparel in evidence. This despite the
fact that evangelical churches supposedly discourage that sort of
thing. So are the rumors true? Half true, I think, but I may have to
elaborate on that later.

Second, the band was pretty good. Not exactly Gregorian Chant, but
there was a pretty good trumpeter and a good conga drum player. Maybe
there is hope for the evangelical tradition yet.

Third, the graduation ceremony was shorter than average. The only thing
better than a short ceremony is the complete absence of any ceremony
whatsoever.

Fourth, the Disney movie about hookworm was interesting. Not the
typical kind of thing that I would expect in church, but it probably
can't hurt to tell an audience of Andean peasants that they should be
using pit latrines. Plus, the movie was voiced-over in Quechua, which
gave me a little bit of an opportunity to practice.

Fifth, there was more quechua speaking. Always good. And beautiful.

Sixth, there was a blessing for the sick. And like half the
congregation got up to be blessed. This may speak to (a) different
social codes in different churches, or (b) how many people are sick. Or
both. But either way, it's interesting.

Seventh, I was at the church for about four hours, and I wasn't even
there for the half of it. Holy crap! No pun intended.

Election News

Now this is the kind of hard-hitting investigative reporting that should
make the traditional press sit up and take notice:

http://www.weeklyworldnews.com/election-08/jindal-in-talks-with-satan/

Chinchero

So, I took the day off from recoding data and learning Quechua to check
out the Incan ruins and market in nearby village of Chinchero.
Beautiful little town--I've put some pictures up on my Picasa account,
and you can get to them by clicking on the link (a picture of an
indigenous woman) over in the sidebar.

Chinchero is another place where you're surrounded by history. Farmers
still work in the shadow of Incan terracing, and the (stunning) village
church is built on the site of an Incan religious site. People also
speak Quechua in the market to one another, and the locals wear
traditional costume, and probably not only for the tourists. In the
market, you can see indigenous families and friends eating together,
sharing their meals communally.

It's neat to hear people speaking Quechua in these places, even if I can
only understand a little.

I don't envy the lives these people hold--Peruvian peasants are tough,
and many of them live lives that many of us would find unimaginable.
But it's good to see that their strong social bonds have, in many
places, survived the changes of the modern age, at least so far.

In the course of my Quechua lessons, we've spent a lot of time talking
about the process of modernization, and the ways in which urban
in-migration, technological modernization, and resulting cultural
changes have left a lot of poor urban residents without either a
connection to their ethnic and cultural roots, or the ability to take
advantage of many of the things the urban world offers.

I wonder if there's something of a Samuel P. Huntington-esque story here
in which social bonds and informal, traditional institutions (like the
Quechua tradition of communal labor) are unable to deal with the large
numbers of people and more complex problems of the urban world. On the
other hand, urban areas of Peru and other parts of the developing world
have yet to develop the complex institutions of the developed
world--things like effective police forces and educational systems.
Maybe, despite his authoritarian apologetics, Huntington got it right.

On the other hand, a lot of the developed world lacks these things, as
well. One might argue that parts of New York, possibly the most
developed place on earth, lack effective law enforcement and educational
institutions.

The Moustache: The Universal Symbol for Pizza/Villainy/Irish Bartenders from the 1850s

One question: Why is the handlebar moustache the universal symbol for
Pizza when (1) Pizza is really hard to eat with a moustache, and (2)
I've never seen an Italian with a handlebar?

The campesinos, by the way, very rarely have any facial hair. I get
stared at a lot. And pointed at, sometimes. Especially by little kids.

And the little kids out in Anta tugged on it to make sure it was real.
I'm not sure they were convinced. And they pulled _hard_!

Me and the Evangelical Protestants

First off, one of the great advantages of being Episcopalian is that you
can pretty much be all things to all men (and women) down here. You're
not really Catholic, so you can always explain to the evangelicals that
you're protestant, etc., and then you're good. If you're talking to a
Catholic... well... Episcopalianism is, as some of my Episcopalian
friends have said, "Catholic Light." And if you're talking to a
nonbeliever, you just tell them the story about how the Anglican church
got started with sufficient irony ("Henry VIII really wanted to divorce
Catherine of Aragon, but the Pope said no, so he just started his own
church.") and you're golden.

And I'm not what you would call a rabidly dogmatic believer, so this is
really no big deal as far as I'm concerned, though I'm sure it would
make some people uncomfortable.

Anyways, the family I'm living with here in Cusco is evangelical
protestant, and they're pretty vocal about it. Normally, this would
make _me_ a little uncomfortable--We talk about religion in my family
(Actually, it's all my grandfather ever talked about. Somehow, even
arguments about gun control turned into arguments about Jesus), but I
guess I'm always just afraid somebody else is going to try to convert
me. And I'm pretty much okay with my Anglican belief system.

No fear of attempted conversion here, though. And all in all, I have to
say, I really agree with the fam's version of evangelical
protestantism. In effect, they think people should:
(a) be honest,
(b) be respectful of women,
(c) work hard,
(d) not judge others, and
(e) go to church on Sunday.

With the exception of the last one, which I'm not too big on, I pretty
much agree with all of that stuff.

Indeed, it's interesting that so many of the European and American
travelers down here have such a strong negative reaction to religious
faith of any kind. First off, the Catholic faith is such a part of the
local history and culture that it's difficult to imagine a day here
without some pretty salient Catholic feel to it, and second of all, one
of the things that these Protestants admire most about the States and
Europe are the same things that have turned them to their own religion.

Listening to these guys talk, it's become increasingly clear to me how
appealing this kind of philosophy can be in a place where:
(a) people lie and cheat all the time (prisoners' dilemma, really--cheat
or the other guy will and you'll be the sucker),
(b) machismo is more the rule than the exception, and sometimes the
worst version is openly on display,
(c) people show up to work late and often do a poor job--good luck
getting the internet turned back on once it's broken down, for example, and
(d) the Catholic church is, shall we say, less than energetic about
following its own dogma.

They see a lot of hypocrisy in the Catholic church (which is,
incidentally, one of the things that drives me nuts about dogmatic
people of any ideological or religious stripe back home), and they
believe in what could almost be termed a constructivist theory about
commonly held beliefs leading to improved behavior. They really think
that energetic religious belief--a very worldly belief system about the
right way to behave in this life, rather than the next--will help solve
Peru's problems with corruption and development. If everybody is trying
to lead a life of "right action" (to steal a phrase from the Buddhists)
and they're all keeping one another in line, things will get better.

As someone who's been socialized as a rational choicer, this stuff is
sometimes hard for me to swallow, but there's clearly a role for belief
in a rational choice explanation of human behavior, as I've written
about before.

There's also a social network story to be told, I think, about the way
evangelicals belong to a close-knit community that can sanction its
members for breaking certain social codes, so it's easier for
evangelicals to trust one another than it is for them to trust the
Catholic downstairs, or (frankly) than it is for others to trust
Evangelicals.

Of course, this won't stop me from making fun of the comically awful
evangelical musical tradition.

But even that, in a way, is a form of democracy. You don't have to be a
professionally trained musician to express your faith through music.
You can just be some schmoe with an electric guitar and a microphone.
And a screechy, out-of-tune voice. And lots of feedback. And a
terrible double-breasted suit.

More thanksgiving...

I am also thankful that my hat is wearing a belt:

http://www.homestarrunner.com/stinkoturkey.html

Maureen thinks I should be thankful for television online and Pizza
Hut. I'm not a big fan of either Pizza Hut or TV, but I have clearly
forgotten to be thankful for Taco Bell and "Bembo's" the Peruvian burger
chain (which is not related to the even-more-amusingly named "Bimbo's",
the Mexican bread company. And Inka Kola.

Yesterday, my Quechua instructor taught me how to give thanks to the
Apus (animist Quechua deities) and Pachamama (mother earth) with my
Chicha. Chicha is homebrewed corn beer. I said, "I'm not a big chicha
drinker. Do I do this with Inka Kola, too? He said, "the campesinos do
it with everything."

So I need to start making coffee offerings to the Fifth Flatiron and
Bear Peak.

A Couple Things I'm Thankful For

I realize it's a little late, but the Peruvian internet was broken over
Thanksgiving. And I had Quechua homework.

1. Emily
2. NetNewsWire
3. STATA
4. The SteriPen
5. Thunderbird
6. Cast iron frying pans
7. Skype
8. Emily

Certainly not a comprehensive list, but three things that do make my
life easier.

Thanksgiving

And by the way, happy Thanksgiving, all!

"Thanksgiving: We were fundamentalists before you were!"

The story has everything:
1. Religious fundamentalism
2. A military captain that was so short that he had to shorten his
sword by 6"
3. Funny hats
4. Anticommunism
5. Great chase scenes (though mostly on foot).
6. Religious persecution
7. Several possible roles for Bruce Campbell
8. The exiling of dissidents to Rhode Island

A fate worse than death, really.

As my good friend William J. Bourke would say, "I kid because I love."
Mostly, I love the cranberry sauce that arrives in the shape of a can,
and the pie. I'll take any kind, but I'm especially fond of the
mincemeat. I'll pass on the turkey and green bean casserole.

I also like Rhode Island. The state's only okay, but the accent is the
best. And there's a pretty good Boy Scout camp there.

Thanksgiving makes for something of a strange story, really. According
to historian Nathanial Philbrick, the whole time the Pilgrims were in
Massachussets, they really wished they were back in the Netherlands.
Can't say I agree with that. If there's one place I'm not inclined to
go (other than Checnya), it would be Kashmir. But after that, it's
Holland. And then Disneyland. Where they also celebrate "Dia de accion
de gracias." Gracias a diós.

A Good Afternoon

You know when you have those days when you just are really thankful that
everything's going the way it is?

After class today (during which we had almost no grammar instruction but
spent the whole morning talking about the social structure of the
quechua-speaking world), I headed down to the supermarket near the
house, to get some groceries and break a S./100 note. It was just a
beautiful afternoon. Blue sky, fluffy white clouds.

I walked through the Plaza Tupac Amaru--commemorating a failed
revolution in 1780--walked past indigenous women in their hats and
braids eating lunch on the grass, walked past the Kaiser jeep pickup at
the Policia Nacional building, walked past little kids with their
parents running around the glowering Tupac Amaru, walked past two middle
class women praying at a Catholic altar in the parking lot of a gas
station (Christ being whipped by a guy with a mean moustache,
incidentally--handlebar moustaches are, along with Stetson hats with
capes, the universal symbol of villainy)

I don't know. Nothing too special, but it just really struck me at that
moment how fortunate I am. I really like it here. Like Peru, like the
people, like the locally manufactured soft drinks.

I also saw, for the first time today, a shelf full of Coca beer. I have
no idea how that works, but it was there in living color.

I have nothing but respect for cocaleros' attempts to build a better,
legal life by marketing their product as a healthy alternative to...
well... pretty much everything. And I get a kick out of Hugo Chavez's
going on about Coca when he clearly has no idea what he's talking
about. (Wouldn't you like to say to unc'l Hugo's face, "Dude. You
don't chew coca paste. That's for cocaine")

But I have to say, most of the coca products I've have the pleasure to
trying have basically been like... like what you would expect a product
made out of ground up leaves to be like. Grainy, dry, and with
basically no taste. Like eating green dirt.

For those of you who haven't been down here, you can buy coca toffee,
coca flour, coca tea, and a lot of other coca crap.

Coca tea is fantastic. I drink it every day.

The rest of the stuff is crap. For a bag of 15 or 20 pieces of coca
toffee, I could support 30 candy-selling street children for a year, and
be much happier off. Knock-off Peruvian jolly ranchers are far superior
to their narcotic-containing brethren.

Jelly beans aren't as good here as in Guate., though.

And in case you don't know, there is no mind-altering aspect to these
coca products. Coca, when chewed by the indigenous folks, does have a
mild stimulative effect. To be honest, I'd like to try it. Sounds like
a strong cup of coffee, only without the jitters. Might help me get
through Avner Greif faster.

All the locals claim that coca tea is great for altitude sickness, but
they're full of it. Unless you typically take your tea with a teaspoon
of sugar and another teaspoon of ash.

Though I do wish they still made Coca Cola with real coca. Probably
better for you, too.

To get the narcotic effect, you have to consume (usually chew) coca with
a catalyst, which is usually the burnt ash of the Quinoa plant. You can
buy that stuff in the market, in theory, but I've never gone looking for
it. I should check it out some day. If only to know what it looks
like. Though I suspect Mike T. can tell me.

For the record, by the way, I'm also not a big fan of Quinoa. Except
for the puffed Quinoa cereal I eat every day. That stuff is awesome.
I'm bringing 150 lbs. back with me when I come home for Xmas.

Sometimes they're got the culinary thing down...

First of, I don't understand why you can't yogurt for drinking in the
states. The stuff is excellent. (Bill S. Preston, Esq.)

And popped Quinoa cereal. By god, if they've got anything due for
export to the United States, it's that stuff! Just like rice crispies,
but bigger puffs and more nutritious.

On an only tangentially related note, I wanted to mention that I saw a
whole truck (not a pickup, but a truck with a 15 or 20 foot bed and 6'
stake sides) entirely filled with cattle heads and hooves. It was
awesome. I've seen cow heads in the streets and in the markets before,
but never in such quantity! Just like seeing a truck full of green
bananas, except better, at least for the adolescent boys among us that
look like 31 year-olds.

There was also blood dripping out of the truck onto the ground in
pools. It ruled.

Then I came home and had this really good sausage and noodle dish.
Mmm. Salty.

Markets for Education

For fairly obvious reasons, I'm interested in education. Working as a
middle school teacher tends to do that to you. And I'm interested in
the ways that education in the United States can work better. In
general (partly, at least, because of my own personal experiences), my
preferences run towards market incentives and away from government
regulation. In general, I would have to say that (central) government
regulation in education (read: No Child Left Behind) doesn't work very
well.

There needs to be accountability in education. Unfortunately,
standardized testing promotes the wrong kind of accountability. And
frankly, it's kind of bizarre that the party of small government has
implemented an old-fashioned approach to regulating education of a kind
that I would expect from New Deal Democrats.

On the other hand, calling the administration of G.W. Bush a "small
government" administration is clearly stretching the truth beyond any
plausibly recognizable form. Mmm.

But that's a tangent.

According to UNESCO (I should cite this, but I'm being lazy), the
Peruvian educational system is almost singularly inefficient in terms of
the kinds of student achievement it gets out of its kids, relative to
the amount of money it puts into the system. Lots of money in, almost
nothing out.

Not surprising on the ground. Peruvian teachers don't show up to work,
and when they do they're faced with terrible working conditions.

But you might expect that the private education system would (1) be
better, and (2) force the public institutions to compete, leading public
schools to perform better.

At least this is what the radical proponents of privatized education expect.

I'm not opposed to the introduction of some market incentives into the
school systems. I'm a big fan of merit pay and charter schools. But I
also think that the Peruvian case demonstrates that market forces
themselves cannot lead to the kinds of outcomes we want.

Why not? I'm not sure, but I've got a couple of ideas.
1. Geographic barriers to educational markets. In some places (like
rural Peru and islands in Maine) there simply isn't a big enough market
for private education.
2. Poverty. In some places (like Peru and Mississippi) people can't
afford a high-quality private education. This may be "efficient" in the
economic sense, but we probably aren't generally in favor of this kind
of efficiency. In general, we would probably feel a lot better about
ourselves if we provided rural Peruvians with (for example) a
sixth-grade education, and if we provided rural Mississippians with (for
example) a high quality high school education and subsidized student
loans, so they have an opportunity to be upwardly-mobile.
3. Collusion. Here, I'm talking about unions that are politically
powerful enough to resist market forces (and democratic pressures, among
other things). This might be a story about clientelist history, or it
might not.

I would like to test these ideas, but I'm not sure how I would get
around the endogeneity issue. There is a strong argument to be made for
the opposite relationship and the opposite direction of causality.
Countries with crappy public education systems will have lots of private
education (because who wants to send their kids to the terrible public
schools).

Cool Internet Stuff!

So, my Quechua instructor lives in Calca, a (somewhat) rural town about
an hour from Cusco, a little bit out of town, where he can't get
internet (or mail, for that matter). So we've made some arrangements
together to do this cellular internet thing, which appears to be
working. Fabulous. The deal is that you get this nifty little USB
modem, plug it into your computer, and connect to the internet through
the cellular network.

The setup is a pain in the ass, because the software that comes with the
modem is terrible, but a little bit of internet searching (thank
goodness I also have wireless internet in the house at the moment) and
it works just fine.

Makes my day.

Now, to get some work done...

Peruvian Haircuts....

Are even cheaper than their Guatemalan counterparts (that's a strange
way of saying that, ey?

I paid about US $1.60 for a pretty good haircut today. Rock, rock on?

Quechua Animism

A couple of weeks ago I wrote a blog posting on the subjectivity of
economic rationality--the fact that these Quechua-speaking peasants do
things that are rational, but only when taken from the perspective of
their own philosophy and belief system (which has strong pre-Colombian
roots, and is fundamentally animist).

Aubrey commented that I might be not be casting my net wide enough, in a
way--that these kinds of belief system issues have been the root of many
conflicts in the past.

I agree with that--I didn't mean to downplay the relevance of these
kinds of belief systems to the things we see today. Fundamentally, we
all have our own belief systems which might or might not be correct--we
all probably do a lot of things that we think are rational, but in some
objective way, make no sense at all (or wouldn't make sense if we had
access to some sort of objective truth).

But maybe I'm getting a little esoteric.

In my Quechua lessons, we spend a lot of time talking about the
spirituality and philosophy of the Quechua-speaking peasants. Valerio
(my teacher) thinks it has a strong bearing on the kinds of things I'll
be looking for when I go out to the municipalities to do more
fieldwork. He might be right--I do think that sometimes these kinds of
"cultural" factors are often less important than we assume they will
be. But I did seem to find some evidence of the importance of some of
these things in my data analysis on the Guatemalan municipality data I
used this summer. Unfortunately, Krister doesn't have any questions in
the survey that touch upon issues like values, philosophy, and cultural
traditions, but ethnic background (Maya or Ladino/Mestizo) often was
statistically significant, as was level of education.

In any event, we've been talking about the way that the peasants will
often take part in a form of economic exchange with (who else) a Shaman
and an Apu (spirit/deity/ancestor).

As something of a questioning believer myself, I find all of this really
interesting on a personal level. I find the idea that my ancestors are
around looking out for me kind of comforting. Especially when I picture
my grandfather, handlebar moustache and all, keeping an eye out for me.

I also think it's pretty interesting the way that the shaman (is that
plural? Shamans? Paqokuna?) make contact with these deities. Sometimes
they talk to them--the more powerful or learned shaman can talk directly
with the Apu, but most of the time, they need to use some intermediate
tool--like reading the future in coca leaves tossed on a blanket, or (in
some places), the use of these terribly unglamorous hallucinogenic
plants that they have down in the jungle.

I wonder if there is some truth to all of this, but not in the way we
might think--it might not be that the well-trained Paqo can use those
coca leaves as something of an inkblot test to bring out his (her?) own
thoughts and instincts about the customer/client/lost soul/seeker of
truth.

Anyways, I probably won't be making offerings to Pachamama any time soon
(or offerings to Maximon, the Guatemalan evil saint, either), but it
does get me thinking. Is there a god? Are there parallel universes
close to our own? And is a 6'2" bald guy with a fantastic moustache up
there looking out for me?

I would make a terrible Catholic, and an even worse Evangelical
Protestant. And I would probably be worst of all as an Animist. I'd
probably be a pretty good Unitarian, though. And I might be able to
swing it as a Catholic of the Franciscan variety, too. Although I guess
the never getting married thing would do me in.

Might I just add...

...that it's bizarre how many hits for "prison labor," "prison," and
"prison torture" I get when I'm searching my hard drive for a .pdf file
with the phrase "prisoners' dilemma."

Chillin' like a statistician...

For the last couple days, I've been running some elementary statistical
tests (ANOVA analysis, two-sample t-tests) for this Paper that Krister
wants to write about a "race to the bottom" in decentralized forestry
regimes.

The race to the bottom argument says that, essentially, when capital
becomes more mobile (it's easier to move capital in whatever form
around) or when political authority is decentralized to sub-national
governments, local governments compete for investment and income by
lowering their regulations and taxation. The end result is that nobody
attracts any more investment, because everybody's taxes and regulations
go down, and everybody ends up worse off because regulations (like labor
and environmental regulations) decline, as do government services
(things like road maintainence law enforcement, and education) because
tax revenue declines along with declining tax assessment rates.

Aside from insane Laffer-curve nonsense, this makes a certain amount of
sense.

So, basically, what I'm doing is comparing forestry regulations, changes
in regulations, and local officials' knowledge of neighbors' forestry
regs through the use of several subjective survey questions.

In the end, I think the evidence pretty strongly supports the argument
that we want to make--there is no race to the bottom. The paper may
also present some weak evidence for a race-to-the-top dynamic (instead
of cutting regulations and taxes, municipalities compete for investment
by operating more efficiently and providing better services), but that's
a stretch for the data we're using.

Essentially, what we're doing is comparing the means of these questions
across the three countries--if a Race to the Bottom is taking place, you
would expect that regulations would be stricter in the least
decentralized country and less strict in the less decentralized
countries, municipal officials would have more knowledge of their
neighbors' forestry regulations in the most decentralized regimes, and
the stringency of regulations would have declined the most in the most
decentralized regimes. None of these things is the case, in several
different iterations of these tests.

In general, I think the paper is pretty strong. My concern is that the
relatively unsophisticated statistical techniques we're using won't be
taken seriously. What I wanted to do was use GIS software to generate a
spatial lag with which to test the idea. But Krister wants to get it
out quickly, and it's true that that sort of stuff will take a billion
years.

Maybe for the dissertation. It's a good excuse to spend months looking
at satellite pictures on Google Earth.

Congrats to Zane on his prospectus defense!

Aaron McGruder discovers...

...what I have always known:

http://www.gocomics.com/features/24/feature_items/393042

Long bus rides and weird coincidences

Today's 20 hour bus-ride from Lima to Cuzco turned into a 25 hour ride.
Not a significant increase in terms of percentage, but when you're
planning to get into Cuzco at 1PM and don't arrive until 6, that's a
difference! We had a blown-out tire in the middle of the night. Not
sure where we were at the time, but we were still on the coastal desert,
so we probably hadn't gotten much beyond Nazca.

That's my third ride like that in a little over a month. I'm hoping I
won't have to do anything like that again for a while yet. At least
it's not a 25 hour chicken bus ride. "Bus Cama"--"Bed Bus," where the
seats recline enough to really get a pretty comfortable night's sleep.
Even so, if I do it again, I think I'll try to do it in a couple of
stages, either Cuzco > Abancay > Nazca > Lima, or Cuzco > Arequipa >
Nazca > Lima. That will make it a little more comfortable. And all
places that I would like to see.

Glad I've done it, though. The scenery is simply stunning.

Just before I left, I bumped into a gal in the Lima bus terminal who was
a former classmate at CU--a Spanish class I took. She's in the Peace
Corps, headed out to her work site for the first time. She's involved
in a health project, but it sounds like she may be a good connection for
my research--she's involved in a project which outfits locals with wood
stoves so they don't have to cook in a smoky environment, but also so
they don't have to use so much firewood.

Small world.

Meeting the Mysterious Dr. J

I had my first meeting today with Krister's Peruvian colleague, Miguel
Jaramillo. All went well--he's a soft-spoken guy and a (very) casual
dresser who gave me a lot of information about what I should be looking
out for.

But man, what a list of things I have to do!

I love Krugman even more:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/in-which-i-get-petty-and-silly/

Baden Powell Park

As a proud former boy scout, I was curious about "Parque Baden Powell"
in Miraflores, named after the founder of the Boy Scouts in the UK. I
checked it out, hoping there would be a nifty statue of the founder,
Boer War veteran, and all around nice guy. I've been trying to convince
Emily for years to name a son (if we ever have one) Baden, which I think
is a pretty good name, even if there's no neckerchief involved.

Sadly, no statue was in evidence, and the only indicator, a traffic
sign, had been vandalized. Still, a pretty nifty park.

More on Lima

After spending most of the day recoding data, I took another walk this
afternoon through ritzy San Isidro and Miraflores.

I'm still not used to how clean and expensive everything is here--I
suspect that Aubrey will take this as gloating, but it's not. I ate
dinner in a cafe in Miraflores, and it cost me nearly what it would cost
in the states. Damn good food (and ice cream), but pricey. I ate a
"Hindu Chicken Panini," which was essentially a chicken panini with
Mango chutney. Is mango chutney really Indian? I have no idea. I felt
guilty eating something so expensive, but Lima is billed as the
"Gastronomic Capital of the Americas," so maybe this is part of my
cultural experience.

Anyways, it was a damn good sandwich.

Along similar lines, I have a question:

Why the hell can I get Dunkin' Donuts in Lima but not in Boulder?
Stupid. And I normally reserve the term "stupid" only for my
impressions of my old high school students.

Finally, the State Department has released a travel warning for the area
around Tacna, in the South of Peru. I have no plans to go there, for
two reasons. First, it's supposed to be a pit. Second, there's no trees.

But it's interesting. Rioting there is essentially over an issue of
federalism. Locals feel that the district, provincial, and regional
governments aren't getting a big enough share of the tax revenue from
mines in the area. What the ideal distribution of revenue from mines
is, I can't say, but the interesting thing is that there was a
referendum on regional autonomy a couple of years ago and Tacna voted
against it. I can't help but think that it has to do with symbols.
"Autonomy" and "decentralization" mean "neoliberalism." And everybody
hates neoliberalism, right?

Sadly...

In the election fever, we've missed out on the _really_ important news:
The "bong hits for Jesus" case settled:

http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/579852.html

Private Security and State

Reading through the Lonely Planet Thorn Tree forum today (a good
resource for travelers), I was struck by a half-asinine post by some
clown who claims that there is crime in Lima, not because people are
poor, but because "people are scum."

The post was only half-asinine because, after making that sweeping
statement, he made a rather well reasoned argument about the ability of
the state to control violence in Latin America. I have no doubt that
the strength of the state has something to do with the high crime rates
here--and I hope that the state will be able to control violence better
in the future, but I also wonder about the role for private security in
the control of violence.

One one hand, I get a kind of perverse kick out of the private security
guards with their shotguns (in Guatemala), AKs (in downtown Lima),
beat-up submachineguns (at a couple of banks in Miraflores) and pistols
(in Cuzco).

On the other hand, there are some real issues of social justice here.
The rich can afford private security. The poor can't. So the people
who experience the worst effects of crime are the ones who can least
afford it.

But on a third hand (I've been working on my ski-boxing), what's the
difference between local government providing security services at the
hands of hired police and community associations providing security at
the hands of hired security providers? And to be honest, a good portion
of the time down here I'd rather have Blackwater protecting me than the
local cops. At least Blackwater's better armed than the criminals
(although the local cops drive those cool Kaiser jeep pickups).

What's the role of private security in the maintenance of law and order
down here? Can there be a market for security which is compatible with
concerns of equity? And what's the correct role for local vs central
government in the provision of these public goods?

One argument for federalism is the idea that some goods are
non-excludable, like national defense. Therefore, these goods create a
free-rider problem. If you get the benefits whether you participate or
not, you'll have an incentive not to pay. And if everybody decides not
to pay, everybody is worse off, because defense won't be provided.
Therefore, we have the state.

And some goods provide benefits at different scales--a good example of
goods that might be better provided at smaller scales is the
environmental protection of watersheds. If you and I live in different
watersheds, and my watershed is threatened, it doesn't make sense for
you to protect my water, because you'll pressure government to spend
less money on protection that won't benefit you, but will cost you
money. It's best to match the size of jurisdictions (or so I will argue
in my dissertation) to the geographic area affected by the problem.

We used to assume that defense is a good best provided at the level of
the nation state. But it seems that, in some places (Iraq comes to
mind), defense at the level of the community makes more sense. What
about other forms of security?

Lima, Coffee, Krugman, and the Middle Class

Actually, those three things aren't connected in any way except that
they happen to be things bouncing around in my head at the moment.

First off, I know I've blogged about this before, but I rather like
Lima. As far as large cities go, it's right up there on my list. It
could do with a garbage dump not right on the ocean and a few other
changes (less sprawl), but it really is a city with a tremendous
history, from pre-Incan civilizations up to the present. I'm staying in
San Isidro, which is one of the ritzier districts of Lima, primarily
because Krister's colleague, Dr. Miguel Jaramillo of research institute
GRADE works out here. Other things being equal, I think I prefer the
center of the city (the historic center, near the Plaza de Armas)
because (1) it's not as ritzy, and thus makes me less uncomfortable (2)
it's marginally more dangerous, but infinitely more interesting, no
matter what you're into, from architecture to history to tailors to
Chinese food. No worries about danger, either, as long as you're smart
and don't go wandering around with an SLR around your neck at 11PM. (3)
It has more, better, and cheaper cafe's. Fact of the matter is, some of
the best coffee I've had so far on this trip was in cafes in downtown
Lima in the first days of my trip.

Even so, this setup is pretty nice.

Got my coffee, and my caffeine-deprivation headache is gone. I'm still
tired as all getout, but feeling like a human again. Shower and coffee
do wonders.

For all of the recent talk about Paul Krugman (in case you don't follow
this stuff, he's a left-leaning economist who just got the Nobel Prize
in Economics), I had never heard him speak before. Based on his picture
for the NY Times, I always figured he would be pretty dour, but I've
just been listening to an interview he did for Bloomberg, and I think I
really like the guy. Obviously, really smart but also pretty
soft-spoken and modest. Of course, there are other academics who I
thought I really liked based on their public speaking, then I got to
meet them (or bump into them in the hall) and found them to be less
positive.

To be perfectly honest, I can't think of a well-known academic who I
haven't liked more after hearing them speak. Totally fell in love with
Doug North after hearing him talk, and the same with Mearscheimer and
BBdM. Mearscheimer especially. Got to love that Brooklyn accent.

One thing that's really striking about Peru is how visible extreme
wealth and extreme poverty are. This probably shouldn't be a surprise,
but it is striking.

I've been thinking a lot about the issue of inequality and the issue of
the middle class and democratization. One theoretical argument you hear
all the time (from everyone from my Dad to Hilton Root) is this idea
that the growth of a large middle class leads to democratization. I've
never understood what the causal argument is behind that. Why should
the middle class want democracy more than (for example) the poor? Is it
just that they have more resources at their disposal to demand democracy?

Personally, I find redistributional arguments (like that of Acemoglu and
Robinson and Boix) much more compelling.

Elections

It's pretty strange being here in Lima for the election. I voted just
before I left the states on Oct. 7, but I'm used to sitting and watching
the returns with some like-minded individual(s).

In '96 (the first election in which I could vote), I voted by absentee
ballot because I was hiking the Appalachian Trail, but I sat and watched
the returns with some friends of the family in Waynesboro, VA, where I
was hiking at the time. I won't say who I voted for that time, but his
name rhymes with "Bob Dole". I still like Dole. I think the Republican
party would be doing a lot better than they are if there were more
people like him. Less Laffer Curve and more stem cell research.

In '00, I watched election returns with Emily at "The Pub" at the
student union at the University of Alaska. I voted in Alaska in the
student union. Alaska, ironically, has one of the more technologically
advanced voting systems that I've used.

In '04, we were on Vinalhaven Island, Maine, where elections pretty much
run the way they have for 200 years. You go into the basement of the
church (separation of Church and State, anyone?), the poll volunteers
(generally old women and men, like anywhere else) greet you by name and
don't bother to check your ID, because they know all 1400 people who
vote on the island, who they're related to, what house they were born
in, and who they're sleeping with at the moment. Then, they give you
your ballot, you fill it out, then you drop it in this big wooden box
(probably the same ballot box they've been using since 1936.)

Anyways, this year I'm in Lima for the election. I voted for Obama with
a mail-in ballot when I was still in Colorado. I don't buy into the
whole "Mr. Obama Goes to Washington" bit--I think it's naiive to think
he'll change the system around (and frankly, I'd be a little concerned
it he did. Our system works pretty damn well) and I still have worries
about his lack of experience (and his opinions on trade policy).

However, we can't afford a president who can't even keep his campaign
from falling apart every couple of months, and that seems to be pretty
much what's been happening with he (not) original maverick.

It also scares the hell out of me that the VP under McCain would be
someone who knows less about (a) foreign policy, (b) economic policy,
and (c) major newspapers in the United States than Sarah and Elliot
Robles. Personally, I think McCain would have done better to pick Jodie
Rell, current governor of CT. Or, for that matter, anyone else. Or at
least anyone that doesn't remind me of Kristina Kirchner.

In Lima

Don't you just love 20 hour bus rides? But I'm in Lima with a hell of a
caffeine-withdrawal headache. I'm in a really nice hotel, and I'm going
to get a shower and go to find some coffee and something to eat. Not
ceviche--don't even suggest it. But I might try to track down a taco
bell--if there's one anywhere in Peru, it's here in Lima.

And another reason not to drink the water:

Everybody's favorite Civil War Union cavalry general, John Buford, was
killed by typhoid. You can check out his wikipedia page here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Buford

Weird Al sez: if you've never tried real Mexican cooking, well you oughta...

Another brief thought to add to the ones below:

The fact that two students at the language school where I'm studying got
sick with typhoid this week helps to validate my point that, although
Mike Touchton is right about most things most of the time, I think his
"get sick on the local water" policy is a little questionable.

Along those lines, I've been using a steri-pen water purifier to clean
the water out of the tap, and the thing rules. Totally amazing. Uses
ultraviolet light to scramble the DNA of any wigglies hiding out in your
H2O. If you haven't had your "the future is here, today" moment this
week, I'd try one out.

Some General Observations...

1. Zip-off travel pants and photography vests are not cool. However,
they do serve the purpose of telling the locals who deserves to be robbed.
2. Andean music beats the pants off of Guatemalan marimba music.
3. Religious artistic achievement and church exploitation appear to be
positively correlated.
4. Wearing a double-breasted suits with no tail vent makes you look
like a goombah no matter what continent you're on.
5. Halloween costumes on little kids are cute anywhere, although the
costumes here are admittedly a little weak.
6. My quechua teacher doesn't get my stupid quechua puns. Come on!
p'acha mama should be the name of a local tailor!
7. Killa is quechua for moon. That means that the killa house isn't a
hotel run by rap aficionados. Sadly. Not that I ever actually thought
that or anything.

Social Sanctions, Municipal Bureaucrats, and my Moustache

Had a fascinating day today.

The family that I'm staying with is doing aid work on their
own--literally out of their own pockets--funding a school in one of the
rural municipalities right outside of Cusco. It's a place where there
has been a kindergarten and a primary school for 15 years, but until
they began paying teachers to go there, there was only part-time
instruction by a volunteer about 2 or 3 days a week. Now, the kids get
full-time instruction, and although there are occasional problems, the
kids probably will have much better opportunities than they have ever
had before.

These kids, by the way, have got to be the cutest things out there.
Until this morning, I was pretty convinced that our landlord's kids were
the cutest possible little people, but that is manifestly not the case.
Peruvian campesino kids are cuter than any gringo kids I've ever seen,
and even cuter, I think, than Guatemalan kids.

Among other things, we played games like "pull the white guy's funny
moustache" and "garbage train," which means the first person grabs on to
the back of the gringo's shirt and we make train noises while performing
a congo line-like dance and picking up garbage off the ground. In
reality, lots of train noises and not much garbage picking-up, but we
made a couple passes, which the kids liked anyways.

Fed them breakfast (bread) and lunch (bananas), because a lot of their
families are too poor to provide them with three meals.

I would be lying, by the way, if I took credit for any of this, except
for having excellent facial hair. My homestay family here is doing all
this stuff.

Between playing with the kids, I had a chance to talk to the community
secretary about local forest politics. According to her, they do a
little bit of reforestation, though they don't get any help from the
municipality or the province, and they only receive subsidized saplings
(not free) for planting from the central government. Even though, they
don't have any trouble with deforestation, she says, because they have a
good system for taking care of people who violate rules regarding
cutting trees. They ostracize them from the community socially and
exclude them from any community decision-making.

So nobody breaks the rules.

Fabulous. This is just the sort of thing I was looking for (but didn't
find) in Guatemala.

Got to go back there and find out more.

I also met with the provincial environmental bureaucrat. He didn't give
me a lot of information (like most municipal bureaucrats), but there is
one interesting thing going on in the province. They seem to be
starting a replanting program as part of a carbon-sequestration project
for which they will receive income. This is an incentive that I don't
think anyone has connected with our research before! Want to find out
more about that as well. Is it real, or is it just some bureaucrat's
pipe dream?

Subjective Rationality

I had an interesting conversation with Valerio, my Quechua instructor
today, in which he described this ritual which takes place North of
here, high in the Andes in the springtime.

As he described it, these two villages on either side of a pass in the
mountains meet in the pass and have a battle-literally-with traditional
weapons like slings.

He said that, as the tradition goes, the side that wins will have better
harvests that year.

He also described how this tradition seems to have been handed down from
the pre-incan Moche culture (if I remember correctly). The battle can
quite literally be deadly. He said that the year he went, he saw at
least one person killed and several others seriously injured, including
badly broken limbs.

This tradition is quite bizarre when viewed from the Gringo
perspective--I mean... come on! Getting killed for some anachronistic
religious belief?

And the really strange thing is that this thing is permitted by the
Peruvian government and even regulated. Apparently, the police look on,
and even regulate things, making sure nobody's smuggling in rifles or
dynamite--only traditional weapons are permitted.

But I got to thinking about how rational this may be, given the belief
system of the people in that part of the countryside. If they win, they
believe they will have a better harvest, and that might be a matter of
life and death for many people in the community. To corrupt Dr. Hans
Zarkov of Flash Gordon fame--"A rational transaction. One life for
many." There is a small probability that you get killed or hurt, but the
result may be, if you believe the myth, that your kids and folks and
uncles and aunts and cousins and friends all get fed and survive this
year, they all get to stay in town, nobody has to go to Lima and work in
a dirty, dangerous factory, and maybe you even make enough to buy some
Chicha during Semana Santa or a new radio or a healthy horse.

Maybe not such a bad deal, right?

The key is the belief system. If you buy in, it makes sense. If you
don't believe, it's ridiculous.

There are two points that occurred to me about this. The first one is a
philosophy of social science idea:

One could argue (I think successfully) that any form of rationality,
including economic rationality, is utterly subjective. Don't worry--I
won't be going all Postmodern/Kuhnian any time soon.

The primary difference between Exchequer Paulson and Karl Marx and those
campesinos up in the mountains is facial hair and goofy hats (for
examples, see my most recent photo posting, in the sidebar). But after
that, the primary difference is the fact that Paulson's theory about the
way the world works has a lot more systematically constructed evidence
than either of the other two theoretical approaches to explaining local
economic trends. Let's face it: neither "winning rock-throwing contest
= good harvest" or "communist revolution = workers' paradise" has a lot
of systematically constructed evidence going for it, while
"recapitalizing banks = much less recession" has some pretty strong
evidence.

Perhaps more importantly to the scientific endeavor, however, is my
second point.

Most people aren't rational economic actors. We know that. When you
pull the lever to drop the 100 $1 bills and offer your partner one of
them, he (or she) says no. We get a lot more utility out of sticking it
to some jerk than we do from $1. What can you buy with $1, anyways? If
we were economically rational, we would never celebrate Halloween, right?

Broadly, we're neither very good at incorporating alternative types of
rationality into our models of human political behavior nor do we make
any attempt to address alternative types of rationality. We have a
pretty good idea what people will do when they're primarily motivated by
money and they have a broadly market-compatible set of beliefs about the
way the world works, but what if there is another type of utility that
moves people--maybe religious faith determines what utility people get
from particular types of action--or maybe people's understanding of how
the world works is totally different from that of the economists.

If you believe (like the Quechua speakers of some Andean villages) that
winning rock fights will make the harvest better, or that blood
fertilizes the earth, or (like the ancient Mayans) that giving your
crops to the priestly class will make the rains come next year, you're
going to do a lot of things that don't make sense to economists. And
fundamentally, that's a flaw.

In order to have a truly comprehensive theory of human behavior, we need
to have generalizable theories (take that, Kuhn!) which are capable of
incorporating alternative rationalities and alternative forms of utility.

IMF

I'll be interested to read more about these IMF loans to Iceland and
(maybe) Pakistan. The time has come to see if the Washington Consensus
(at least the dogmatic version) has reached its end.

As yet another birthday gift...

...McDonald's is opening in the main plaza in Cusco. Frankly, I would
rather a Taco Bell or a Pollo Campero (if I might be so bold), but I'll
take what I can get. They'll get plenty of competition from the local
francise of Bembo's, a Peruvian burger chain that's right across the
plaza and looks pretty slick (although I haven't actually checked to see
if the burgers are more than 5mm thick.) The only downside to Bembo's
may be that they lack the free WiFi that may make McDonald's my second
home.

For those of you who would complain about the opening of a symbol of
neo-imperialism in the heart of the old Incan Empire, I would suggest
that globalization works both ways--these same forces may bring us
really good papa a huancaina in Boulder.

They have, after all, already brought us the Pupusa place on North
Broadway--an El Salvadorian restaurant that's run by a bunch of Mexican
guys which was originally recommended to be by the American son of
Guatemalan immigrants while at a hostel in Guatemala, and which I have
since recommended to other Boulderites in Honduras, Guatemala, and the US.

They also serve Mexican coke.

There are probably more ways to get other countries into this story, but
I think my globalization schtick may be a little worn.

¡Feliz Cumpleaños a Mi!

Thanks to all of you who wished me a happy birthday... Maureen
commented on my facebook page that she hoped I would get a cake from my
family. I did, in fact, get two cakes. One last night at the house,
and one at the language school where I'm getting my Quechua lessons.
They were both pretty good, but the kicker was the Peruvian dish that
went along with the cake. I believe it was "Pollo al Aji" or something
like that. Mildly spicy casserole-like dish with potatoes (of course),
onion, cheese, and chicken over a bed of lettuce, served over rice. The
Peruvians really do know how to cook!

In other news, I've been taking some pictures of graffiti around town
(all ostensibly political, though some more than others) which I'm going
to upload to my picasa page. Since Emily has been asking for pictures
of my hat, I'm also going to put a picture of that up as well. I'll
also put a link in the sidebar.

Colin Powell

If he's endorsing Obama, apparently I voted for the right candidate...

Me, hats, and Harrison Ford

As Zane knows, one of the things that I admire about Sam Fitch is the
fact that he is one of the few people I know who can really pull off
wearing a hat with a brim in this day and age. I (like most admirers of
Indiana Jones) love the fedora etc., but (although I own like four
fedoras and the like) I feel a little silly wearing one.

Nevertheless, I find myself the owner of another Peruvian fedora
today--my second--after losing several layers of skin in a particularly
painful way at the hands of the thin Andean air and needing a hat that
will do a better job of allowing me to ward off a case of skin cancer
for a while.

I feel a little less silly, though, after having two conversations about
the hat.

The first was with Lucy, the mom in the house, who told me a story about
how a former student of the school that stayed in their house was robbed
in Venezuela but didn't lose any credit cards because he had them stored
in his hat.

The second was a conversation with the Canadian gal who is also staying
here. She was impressed with the purchase.

So I think I'll keep it. And I'll be putting a credit card or two inside.

Noqaq sutiyki gringo

Learning a new language from scratch is hard work! I am now able to
carry on a very basic conversation in quechua, and on a couple of
occasions, I have been able to understand a word or two here and there
spoken on the street by the locals. Wears me out, but it's kind of fun
to be picking it up, however slowly.

Between the dry air and the terrible sunburn I got the second day I was
here, I look like I'm developing some terrible skin condition. I've
lost about three layers of skin on the back of my neck. Emily tells me
that my grandfather would tell me to put suntan lotion on. She's right,
but I'm hoping it won't come to that (I hate the stuff). I'm hoping
I'll be able to track down a nice fedora with a brim, having stupidly
left my awesome crushable fedora at home in Colorado. The fact of the
matter is, there isn't much time when I'm not wearing a long-sleeved
shirt anyways, and wearing shorts would be like walking around with a
flashing sign that says "Tourist: Mug Me." I didn't even bring a pair.
Not that I exactly blend in here... So the only thing that needs
shading is my head. And a hat will do that.

I just want to avoid the floppy tourist-hat look. If you know what I mean.

Emily and I are definitely adopting dark-skinned children so my kids
don't have to deal with this curse of the pasty.

A day in Cusco by the numbers...

11,000 feet of altitude
12 panhandlers
14 pushy street vendors
10 miles walking
14 miles by taxi
5 shoeshine boys
7 gringos in photography vests
3 completely separate parades
20 bottle rockets
2 coffees
4 hours of Quechua
2 llamas

And in response to Aubrey...

...Peruvians poop in the street, too.

http://aubreywestfall.blogspot.com/2008/10/do-you-have-three-euro-or-toilet.html

Lima Architecture

First off, I realize that this is getting ridiculous. I must have
posted three blog entries today. And it looks even worse because all of
my posts from the past week went up yesterday. I have work to do, but
I'm evidently finding an effective way of putting it off. But I've been
thinking this for three days and I wanted to put it up before I forgot.

Moving on...

Lima is a mecca for mid-century architecture and on back to the colonial
period. Including at least three styles of early 19th century
architecture (Moorish, French, and Spanish-style construction), early
20th-century Victorians, Art Deco style... the works.

Most of the buildings are grimy and decaying. But they're still
beautiful. I wish I could have gotten some pictures, but I didn't feel
like walking down a busy street in the run-down central part of Lima was
a good time to advertise my status as a wealthy gringo. "Hey! Mug me!"

It's like a slightly seedier, dirtier version of Manhattan.

Which gets me to my next point. I am totally convinced that the
Peruvians are going to be one of the shining stars of Latin America's
21st century. In thirty years, this country will be like another
world. If only they could get their wacky electoral laws squared away.

Tipping

In his blog, Chris Blattman argues that we should end the process of
tipping:

http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/chrisblattman/~3/418456361/end-tip.html

I agree with the argument that it's a shame that the tip has become an
obligation. However, I like tipping. I try to tip everyone, including
my barista, because it helps to ensure good service the next time I use
the services provided at a particular establishment.

I try to tip with coins at the coffee shop when I can, incidentally,
because they clink when they go into the tip jar, and they can hear me
tipping, even if their back is turned.

In Cusco

And by the way, I'm in Cusco. And folks, for those of you who've never
been here, you really should come.

Some of you all had heard that I was going to take a 30-hour bus ride to
Cusco. As it turns out, the road has gotten a lot better since the
Lonely Planet book was put together, so the ride is scheduled to take
only about 20 hours now. From 5:30 in the afternoon until about 1PM the
following day. But it was closer to 24 hours for me, since it was about
4:30 when we pulled into the Cruz del Sur station in town.

For any of you who haven't ridden these South American luxury buses,
it's a hoot. They show movies pretty much constantly, serve meals, and
play bingo. And the seats recline to almost horizontal so you can
almost sleep well.

They also run a metal detector over you and video you as you're getting
on to prevent (or deter) you from hijacking the bus and stealing
everybody's baggage and passports, etc. That has been known to happen,
though I definitely felt secure on this one.

Oh. And they offer wireless internet. Seriously. But I didn't want to
haul the old computer and make myself a target for entrepreneurial
Peruvians in search of some cash. And as any Bolivian will tell you,
all Peruvians are thieves and crooks. Just kidding, of course, although
the Bolivians actually do say that. And they refer to them as "rats."
Pretty hilarious. For the record, my experiences with Peruvians have
been almost universally aboveboard. Only gotten ripped off by the
occasional taxista.

All in all, it's a pretty good deal. About $50 for that trip, which is
a hell of a lot less than flying. Especially at the moment, as several
local carriers have gone out of business and the level of competition is
low.

And it's totally worth the literal pain-in-the-ass to see the incredible
views. Peruvian mountain scenery is, if anything, more beautiful than
Guatemalan mountain scenery.

Plus, I saw the following movies in Spanish: Superbad, What Happens in
Las Vegas, that movie about Sept. 11 with Nicholas Cage, and some action
flick about snipers. I'm probably forgetting one, as well. Not that I
would have ever paid to see any of those movies, but still. And not to
mention that it's one less night that I have to find a place to stay!

New Pictures

I have a (very) few pictures from Lima up on my picasa site now. You
can click on the link below, or I'll also put a link up in the sidebar.

http://picasaweb.google.com/gdanielwright

Emily Passed the Bar!

Now, you can all refer to her as Emily L. Wright, Esquire (but avoid
using your Keanu Reeves accents, por favor.)

Religion

I visited two places today that tend to give you really disparate
impressions of the Catholic Church in Peru (and Latin America in general).

After getting some breakfast and a bus ticket, I stopped into the Lima
Cathedral to take a look at Pizarro's tomb. I had been into the
cathedral before, when I came here with my high school kids, but I
didn't really have a chance to look around.

Pizarro's tomb itself is (remarkably) beautiful, and ironic.
Breathtakingly decorated in colorful mosaics, there are religious scenes
and a mosaic of one of Pizarro's earlier encounters with Peruvians,
during which he spirited away two indigenous Peruvians to be displayed
in Spain as curiosities, and to demonstrate the potential of the new
land to the crown (hoping to get a loan). If my history is right, the
event took place during Pizarro's second trip to South America, before
he defeated the Inca Atahualpa.

The tomb is ironic because of the religious imagery (I don't associate
Pizarro with many of the values of any church), and because of the huge
"PAX" written on the floor. Pizarro was no peacemaker. He lived a life
of violence (from his early life fighting in Italy elsewhere to his
assassination at the hands of his rivals).

Even with Pizarro's unholy bones hanging around, there is no question
that the cathedral gives you (or at least gives me) a peaceful feeling
of awe, as much at the beauty of the religious artifacts on display
there as at the religious significance of the place. So many beautiful
paintings and incredibly intricate woodcarvings, among other things,
really speak to the inspiration that religious beliefs have brought to
many people here, religious functionaries and lay-people alike.

Although I suspect my family will be surprised, I have to say that, were
I to adopt some other religious creed (I consider myself an
episcopalian, though not a dogmatic one in any respect), I wouldn't feel
uncomfortable adopting the Catholic faith. Although the official
beliefs of the church are much more conservative than my own, the
religion, as it's practiced in everyday life, is often pretty loose, and
there is also a strong political tradition (Liberation Theology) that
comes out of the Catholic Church that I can associate with.

I tend to be a little more skeptical of the evangelical churches that
are in evidence here and, especially, in Guatemala. Those guys are a
lot more conservative than me. But at the same time, evangelical
churches are also known for being popular with women (especially poor
women), because the women believe that church membership makes their
partners more reliable. It is feasible. Those churches discourage
gambling and drinking (among other things) and create a dense social
network which probably places social sanctions on individuals that break
those norms.

Of course, the evangelical churches also energetically oppose birth
control, which can't be helpful, economically. It always scares me to
see so many small children running around. Latin American kids are
super-cute, but they eat as much as American kids and cost a lot of
money to clothe and educate as well.

On the other hand, I spent a good portion of the afternoon in the
"Museum of the Holy Inquisition," which is a really creepy place.
Torture equipment on display, an excavated dungeon where prisoners were
kept... Really scary.

The inquisition was, to put it mildly, a completely unjust and truly
frightening episode in American history (that is, the history of the
Americas). The lonely planet book refers to it as a "Kafka-esque
nightmare" and "utterly surreal." Which is about right. Although at
the risk of polemicizing, (is that a word?), some of the things they did
weren't all that different from some of the creepy things the CIA has
been involved in (waterboarding and whatnot). The inquisition developed
a range of methods that would cause great pain and fear while not
permanently damaging the body of the defendant (victim?). That sounds
pretty similar to the current administration's efforts to justify
interrogation techniques which have the information-extracting power (or
lack thereof) of torture, but technically, can be defined as "not
torture."

Kind of makes you wonder about the church all over again. On average,
good or bad?

For those of you who slogged through all of that, I'll shortly have some
pictures of some of my recent attempts at touristing up on my picasa
site--when I upload them, I'll put a link up, although you can also get
to my pictures from my CU web site (http://sobek.colorado.edu/~wrightgd).

Guys with Guns

One thing I don't get: Why do security guards in Guatemala use pump
shotguns, while all of the security guards I've seen here carry AK
rifles? Given the economic situation of each country, one might think
that these were economic decisions, but why would Peru have an abundance
of AKs and not Guatemala?

At least the guards are older than 14.

I also want to note that I saw possibly the coolest police vehicle I've
ever seen. Better than the mustang interceptors some police departments
are now using. I saw a Kaiser Jeep pickup truck with a riot setup that
consisted of a metal box-shaped frame welded to the chassis, with wire
grating (a little thicker than chicken wire) welded on. Presumably,
this is so that the truck can be used to bash back crowds of angry
protesters while being protected from flying rocks, airborne guinea
pigs, and the occasional high-velocity freeze-dried potato.

Really, though, the cool part is the fact that it was an old Kaiser
pickup. Those things rule.

Lima

I arrived in Lima last night with no real problems, and aside from
paying an inordinate amount of money for a (safe) registered taxi at the
airport to take me to my hotel, everything went just fine.

At first, I was a little worried about the hotel I'm in. It's in a
classic (read: old and dark) building, and is a little run down. But I
slept quite well last night, and the room is quite clean and
comfortable, even though it is a little worn around the edges.

I've only been in Lima one other time, and it was on a guided tour which
Emily and I went on with some high school students of ours when we were
teaching in Maine. The endshot is that, although we spent a day or so
here, I didn't get a very good feel for the place, because we spent most
of the time touring historic sites and museums. It was, certainly a
good trip, but we hardly went anywhere where we were amongst Peruvians,
rather than gringos.

So here I am. I wanted to get a little bit of a chance to walk around
the city and check it out. So today, I went to the Plaza de Armas to
get my bearings, then went off to the la Parque de la Muralla, which is
a park laid out around the ruins of a section of the city walls. Along
the way, I checked out some colonial churches, including the Convento de
San Francisco, where the crypts below the church are open, and you can
peer into chambers where femurs and skulls are laid out in symmetric
geographic patterns. But I only looked at the facade and dodged the
pigeons today, because I've been down there before.

Also walked through one of the city markets--a lot less crowded and
chaotic than I thought it would be, though it still has its share of
stiff, dead geese hanging upside down in butcher shops, pigs' heads on
hooks, and what appear to be cattle hooves...

Lima is also blessed with a large number of very skilled tailors. Lots
of sharp looking suits hanging in the windows.

I got a chip for my cell phone, so I should be able to use it to call
home now, though I'm not sure how expensive it will be (probably too
much). We'll see how it goes. I already had two of the three major
brands available in Guatemala, and now I have the third. I may, at some
point, also get a Telefonika chip here. I've got one, but I don't think
I'll be able to receive calls on it, since it's a Guatemala number.

And in case anyone wants to call me, my number here is: 98 046 8931. To
get me from the states, you probably have to dial 01 (the international
access code) and 51, the country code. So that makes it:

01 51 980 46 8931

I think.

I also walked through Chinatown. That's a bizarre feeling. Why do I
have the strange belief that Chinese individuals only emigrate to the
United States?

In general, I would say a couple things about Lima:
1. Although it has been held up as an example of poor air-quality
regulation, especially among automobiles, Lima seems a heck of a lot
cleaner to me than Guatemala city, though it was (admittedly) a holiday
today, and the city isn't getting a lot of the traffic it might get
otherwise.
2. Parts of the center here are a little dirty, but a hell of a lot
nicer than Guatemala city, and even La Paz. Although La Paz also has a
pretty good feel to it.
3. It's pretty clear that Peru hasn't had an election in a long time.
Not many painted election signs around. Although there is one huge APRA
up on a hillside North of the center.
4. They do seem to be doing a good job at developing the city, as
well. A lot of work seems to have gone on in the last ten years or so,
and the city is fairly well maintained. I'm hopeful for them.

Also, I'm so far very happy with my mountainsmith lumbar pack/shoulder
bag. Not as slash proof as the leather bag I got in Guatemala, and not
as crushable as the montbell bag that got slashed before I got the
leather bag, but very comfortable, even when I'm wearing it in front
with a backpack.

All right, I think it's time to head off and get some dinner and a
recharge for my phone.

Heading Out Again

I'm currently sitting in terminal C of Denver International Airport,
watching the beginning of what looks like a beautiful sunrise. I'm
heading out of Denver for Atlanta, Miami, and ultimately, Lima, Peru
this evening.

Although I've felt in limbo the last couple of weeks here, and didn't
get the one thing completed that I had planned for this month, I did
have a fantastic break with Emily, I got rested up, and I got a lot
closer to defending my dissertation prospectus (my one solid goal). I
also had a nice visit with my mom and dad, who came out earlier in
September, and some nice get-togethers with people in the department and
other friends.

If all goes well, I will spend a couple days in Lima, then I'll take a
bus to Cusco towards the end of the week and be there on Saturday (the
11th of October). I'll be in a guesthouse from the 11th until the 18th
or so, then I move in with a family (hopefully, a Quechua-speaking
family, so I can practice my language skills).

My lessons begin on the 13th (Monday), and continue on up until December.

The only other things I have scheduled for the time being are a meeting
with Miguel Jaramillo, a colleague of Krister's and the guy who
orchestrated the Peru surveys, during the first week of November, and my
flight back to Denver for Christmas, which is on Christmas Eve Day.

I started missing Emily before I even left, and I'm already looking
forward to getting back. Only 78 days to go until I see her again...

But, as she said, my job is to have a good time and get some good work
done in the process.

Even so, I'm looking forward to getting this language training and
fieldwork over with, so that we don't have to be apart again for a long
time.

Elk Bugling

Emily and I took an afternoon trip up to Rocky Mountain National Park on
Saturday afternoon to view the pre-mating elk ritual in which the males
"bugle" to attract females, who choose their mates based on (presumably)
some sort of evolutionary impulse to mate with the biggest and strongest
male available.

Prior to mating, the elk all assemble in lower-altitude valleys and the
males strut around (and "toot their horns," as Emily puts it) and call
the women in. They seem to sort themselves into smaller and larger
groups based (presumably) on the desirability of the male, as well as (I
imagine) the probability that a female with have of actually mating with
the chosen male.

As I told Zane today, this sounds like an agent-based modeling project.

But it's also a tremendously fascinating and really beautiful thing to
watch. Elk are really charismatic animals (in a way that many large
deer, like moose, are not) and the bugling is quite visible and, if our
experience is any guide, a really easy thing to find.

Financial Bailouts

Zane writes about the bailout, expressing his frustration with the
amount of our money which is being spent to get these financial
institutions out of the hot water that they got themselves into.

I agree, although at this point, I'm not sure what the alternatives
are. I'm no economist, but it sounds like the consequences of not
bailing these firms out would be too terrible to imagine.

But over the long term, I wonder if the real problem, and one problem
that we should be concerned with, is the _size_ of these firms. Zane
got me thinking along the lines of Adam Smith the other day, and it got
me to imagining the economy as Smith might have thought of it. When he
was writing about the invisible hand and the functioning of markets,
most of what existed at the time in Great Britain (among other places)
were relatively small firms by today's standards. Even the biggest
weren't that big, relative to the size of the whole economy. If one of
those firms failed, no big deal, right? Firm goes down, some people out
of work... nothing that a modern welfare state apparatus can't deal with.

But what we're seeing here is an end to Schumpeterian creative
destruction. Firms aren't being allowed to fail because it would cause
too much pain among the innocents in the market.

Is it unreasonable to think that we should re-examine our anti-trust
laws to consider the size of a firm--and thus it's status as a "trust"
based not only on whether that firm can manipulate markets in an unfair
way, but whether (in the case of financial institutions like banks,
especially), the size of these firms would make a failure too harmful to
the economy as a whole.

Should the government be making sure that we have a couple hundred major
banks in the country, rather than a couple of conglomerates whose
failure could cause major havoc?

If the government played a role in overseeing the size of firms in this
way, maybe we would be able to allow financial firms to fail when the
time came.

On the other hand, maybe we would just see a lot of small firms failing
(or getting bailed out) the same way a few big ones are being bailed out
at the present.