More on Fujimori

First off, the update is that Fujimori receives 25 years in prison for his role in massacres and kidnappings during his rule. He's 70 now--you can do the math.

No visible sign of the verdict in the part of Lima I'm in, although many people were intently watching the sentencing when I was in the airport this morning. I also should note that I'm not in a part of the capital where you'd expect protests to break out. But it does look as though all is calm here. Papers aren't reporting anything sketchy. Always good.

If you're inclined to read up on the case, you can check out the (rather well documented) wikipedia page here. The short version of the story is this:

1. Alan García gets elected to the presidency in 1985. During his presidency, a few bad things happen. First, the Shining Path really kicks into gear. Second, El Niño kicks into gear. Third, inflation hits 7500%. Hard to blame him for El Niño, and there's an argument to be made that the Shining Path really wasn't his fault either, but the inflation was all him.
2. In 1990, two major candidates emerge. First is Peruvian author and all-around nice guy Mario Vargas Llosa. He's nuts. And he runs on a pretty conservative platform. The other candidate is this cute little japanese guy named Fujimori. He runs a campaign that makes him look like a mild-mannered Hugo Chavez. He wins, but (probably because he's effectively running as an independent) he doesn't get a majority of the congress.
3. Once elected, Fujimori implements Jeff Sachs-designed "shock treatment" program that's far more conservative than anything Vargas Llosa ever thought of. It hurts, but it works, bringing inflation under control.
4. People start appending "Fuji-" before every word they can think of. So, you get "Fujishock," "Fujigolpe," etc...
5. Fujimori organizes the "ronderos"--peasant patrols that start to get the Sendero Luminoso uprising under control. The uprising doesn't end until later, but it's on the decline by '92. Incidentally, this is a pretty similar strategy to that followed by, among others, the US in Iraq under the "Sunni Awakening," and the Carrancistas in the Mexican revolution. It worked in all three cases.
6. Fujimori decides that it's hard to run government when congress isn't controlled by your party (what party?), so he disbands congress and writes up a new constitution.
7. Under the new constitution, he's able to run again, so he runs, and wins.
8. The military captures Ariel Gúzman, head of the Sendero.
9. Fujimori runs again and wins in 2000, amidst widespread allegations of fraud.
10. Corruption and human rights scandals break, and Fujimori flees to Japan.
11. He comes back to Chile in 2005, with the idea of running for the Presidency of Peru again in 2006. Chileans arrest him at the airport, and send him home to Peru for trial.

By the way, Alan García is the guy who won the election in 2006, in case you don't remember. Funny how that works. He's about 85 pounds heavier now, as Evo Morales keeps pointing out, but apparently all the ceviche and papas huancaína has led to a better set of policies that has Peru well on the road to economic develoment.

The hard thing about this case is that Fujimori is definitely a complex character, who did a lot of good things (fixing the Peruvian economy, ending the Shining Path uprising), and a lot of bad things (corruption, human rights abuses). Most Peruvians think he should be found guilty, but I don't know enough about the details of the case to have a truly informed opinion. If this were the US, I would say something along the lines of, "but I trust the wisdom of the court system, and believe that the verdict is probably just." But Peru isn't the US, and I wouldn't be willing to vouch for the neutrality (or honesty) of the Peruvian court system.

In the end, though, the significance of the case probably goes beyond the sentence of one individual. Fujimori's trial also might be seen as (a) the end of impunity for corrupt, authoritarian leaders in Peru, or (b) the beginning of the next phase in the Fujimori family's political career.

My predictions (this is the part where I act all English School):
1. Fujimori is put in prison, and serves out most of his sentence.
2. A moderate right-winger wins the next election (Alejandro Toledo?), and Keiko Fujimori's candidacy doesn't go anywhere.
3. I start appending "Fuji-" to the beginning of words unrelated to Peruvian politics. Man, I could really go for a Fujirrito about now. Or a Fujiguesa.