While it is true that the presidential elections in Peru are a long way off, candidates have begun to declare their candidacy. While many things frustrate me about the Peruvian electoral system at the local level, the national system is actually pretty good--a simple first-past-the-post system (that is, winner-takes-all, like we have in the states), but with a runoff (a second round election) between the two highest vote-getters a couple of months after the first round of voting. This allows voters to coordinate in the second round, and though it has some flaws (I would actually prefer an STV system, I think), my complaints with the system are pretty minor.
The biggest weaknesses in Peruvian elections actually seem to be internal to political parties (basically, Peruvian political parties are weak and have little grass-roots, community-level organization, though that may be changing). But that's an issue for another time.
The Peruvian Times notes the following public opinion data regarding the race:
According to the Lima-based polling firm Ipsos & Apoyo, 20 percent of respondents are expected to vote for Keiko Fujimori in the next ballot, down two points since January. Luis Castañeda Lossio – currently the mayor of Lima – came in a close second, with 18 percent, followed by Ollanta Humala, with 14 percent. The poll was based on a July 15-17 survey of 1,000 Peruvians, and has a margin of error of 3 percent.
This is worrying, really. Keiko Fujimori doesn't have much of a platform--a vote for her is essentially a vote for her father, as she promises to pardon him if she wins. It also is a vote for traditional clientelist politics, as most supporters of Fujimori, based on personal conversations, are individuals who remember the spending blitzes of Alberto Fujimori's various campaigns, both as president and as dictator, which resulted in high levels of spending in rural areas.
It doesn't help that Alan Garcia, the current president, pretty much ignores rural Peru.
Of this list, I would personally be happiest to see a race between Fujimori and/or Ollanta Humala and Castañeda Lossio, the mayor of Lima. Castañeda's political star is tied to Lima, where he has developed a reputation for relatively effective and clean management. His connection to Lima, however, is a real shame, because an election between either of these two pairings would probably become a race based around traditional Peruvian urban/rural split (or Lima/rest of Peru). He is, however, an evangelical Christian. This means that he might be successful in garnering some rural support based on his religion, and it is probably more likely to help him with evangelicals than hurt him with Catholics.
Ollanta Humala is another case who deserves a full blog posting. Perhaps I'll leave that for next time, lest this blog posting get too long.
Showing posts with label Fujimori. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fujimori. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
More on Fujimori
First off, the update is that Fujimori receives 25 years in prison for his role in massacres and kidnappings during his rule. He's 70 now--you can do the math.
No visible sign of the verdict in the part of Lima I'm in, although many people were intently watching the sentencing when I was in the airport this morning. I also should note that I'm not in a part of the capital where you'd expect protests to break out. But it does look as though all is calm here. Papers aren't reporting anything sketchy. Always good.
If you're inclined to read up on the case, you can check out the (rather well documented) wikipedia page here. The short version of the story is this:
1. Alan García gets elected to the presidency in 1985. During his presidency, a few bad things happen. First, the Shining Path really kicks into gear. Second, El Niño kicks into gear. Third, inflation hits 7500%. Hard to blame him for El Niño, and there's an argument to be made that the Shining Path really wasn't his fault either, but the inflation was all him.
2. In 1990, two major candidates emerge. First is Peruvian author and all-around nice guy Mario Vargas Llosa. He's nuts. And he runs on a pretty conservative platform. The other candidate is this cute little japanese guy named Fujimori. He runs a campaign that makes him look like a mild-mannered Hugo Chavez. He wins, but (probably because he's effectively running as an independent) he doesn't get a majority of the congress.
3. Once elected, Fujimori implements Jeff Sachs-designed "shock treatment" program that's far more conservative than anything Vargas Llosa ever thought of. It hurts, but it works, bringing inflation under control.
4. People start appending "Fuji-" before every word they can think of. So, you get "Fujishock," "Fujigolpe," etc...
5. Fujimori organizes the "ronderos"--peasant patrols that start to get the Sendero Luminoso uprising under control. The uprising doesn't end until later, but it's on the decline by '92. Incidentally, this is a pretty similar strategy to that followed by, among others, the US in Iraq under the "Sunni Awakening," and the Carrancistas in the Mexican revolution. It worked in all three cases.
6. Fujimori decides that it's hard to run government when congress isn't controlled by your party (what party?), so he disbands congress and writes up a new constitution.
7. Under the new constitution, he's able to run again, so he runs, and wins.
8. The military captures Ariel Gúzman, head of the Sendero.
9. Fujimori runs again and wins in 2000, amidst widespread allegations of fraud.
10. Corruption and human rights scandals break, and Fujimori flees to Japan.
11. He comes back to Chile in 2005, with the idea of running for the Presidency of Peru again in 2006. Chileans arrest him at the airport, and send him home to Peru for trial.
By the way, Alan García is the guy who won the election in 2006, in case you don't remember. Funny how that works. He's about 85 pounds heavier now, as Evo Morales keeps pointing out, but apparently all the ceviche and papas huancaína has led to a better set of policies that has Peru well on the road to economic develoment.
The hard thing about this case is that Fujimori is definitely a complex character, who did a lot of good things (fixing the Peruvian economy, ending the Shining Path uprising), and a lot of bad things (corruption, human rights abuses). Most Peruvians think he should be found guilty, but I don't know enough about the details of the case to have a truly informed opinion. If this were the US, I would say something along the lines of, "but I trust the wisdom of the court system, and believe that the verdict is probably just." But Peru isn't the US, and I wouldn't be willing to vouch for the neutrality (or honesty) of the Peruvian court system.
In the end, though, the significance of the case probably goes beyond the sentence of one individual. Fujimori's trial also might be seen as (a) the end of impunity for corrupt, authoritarian leaders in Peru, or (b) the beginning of the next phase in the Fujimori family's political career.
My predictions (this is the part where I act all English School):
1. Fujimori is put in prison, and serves out most of his sentence.
2. A moderate right-winger wins the next election (Alejandro Toledo?), and Keiko Fujimori's candidacy doesn't go anywhere.
3. I start appending "Fuji-" to the beginning of words unrelated to Peruvian politics. Man, I could really go for a Fujirrito about now. Or a Fujiguesa.
No visible sign of the verdict in the part of Lima I'm in, although many people were intently watching the sentencing when I was in the airport this morning. I also should note that I'm not in a part of the capital where you'd expect protests to break out. But it does look as though all is calm here. Papers aren't reporting anything sketchy. Always good.
If you're inclined to read up on the case, you can check out the (rather well documented) wikipedia page here. The short version of the story is this:
1. Alan García gets elected to the presidency in 1985. During his presidency, a few bad things happen. First, the Shining Path really kicks into gear. Second, El Niño kicks into gear. Third, inflation hits 7500%. Hard to blame him for El Niño, and there's an argument to be made that the Shining Path really wasn't his fault either, but the inflation was all him.
2. In 1990, two major candidates emerge. First is Peruvian author and all-around nice guy Mario Vargas Llosa. He's nuts. And he runs on a pretty conservative platform. The other candidate is this cute little japanese guy named Fujimori. He runs a campaign that makes him look like a mild-mannered Hugo Chavez. He wins, but (probably because he's effectively running as an independent) he doesn't get a majority of the congress.
3. Once elected, Fujimori implements Jeff Sachs-designed "shock treatment" program that's far more conservative than anything Vargas Llosa ever thought of. It hurts, but it works, bringing inflation under control.
4. People start appending "Fuji-" before every word they can think of. So, you get "Fujishock," "Fujigolpe," etc...
5. Fujimori organizes the "ronderos"--peasant patrols that start to get the Sendero Luminoso uprising under control. The uprising doesn't end until later, but it's on the decline by '92. Incidentally, this is a pretty similar strategy to that followed by, among others, the US in Iraq under the "Sunni Awakening," and the Carrancistas in the Mexican revolution. It worked in all three cases.
6. Fujimori decides that it's hard to run government when congress isn't controlled by your party (what party?), so he disbands congress and writes up a new constitution.
7. Under the new constitution, he's able to run again, so he runs, and wins.
8. The military captures Ariel Gúzman, head of the Sendero.
9. Fujimori runs again and wins in 2000, amidst widespread allegations of fraud.
10. Corruption and human rights scandals break, and Fujimori flees to Japan.
11. He comes back to Chile in 2005, with the idea of running for the Presidency of Peru again in 2006. Chileans arrest him at the airport, and send him home to Peru for trial.
By the way, Alan García is the guy who won the election in 2006, in case you don't remember. Funny how that works. He's about 85 pounds heavier now, as Evo Morales keeps pointing out, but apparently all the ceviche and papas huancaína has led to a better set of policies that has Peru well on the road to economic develoment.
The hard thing about this case is that Fujimori is definitely a complex character, who did a lot of good things (fixing the Peruvian economy, ending the Shining Path uprising), and a lot of bad things (corruption, human rights abuses). Most Peruvians think he should be found guilty, but I don't know enough about the details of the case to have a truly informed opinion. If this were the US, I would say something along the lines of, "but I trust the wisdom of the court system, and believe that the verdict is probably just." But Peru isn't the US, and I wouldn't be willing to vouch for the neutrality (or honesty) of the Peruvian court system.
In the end, though, the significance of the case probably goes beyond the sentence of one individual. Fujimori's trial also might be seen as (a) the end of impunity for corrupt, authoritarian leaders in Peru, or (b) the beginning of the next phase in the Fujimori family's political career.
My predictions (this is the part where I act all English School):
1. Fujimori is put in prison, and serves out most of his sentence.
2. A moderate right-winger wins the next election (Alejandro Toledo?), and Keiko Fujimori's candidacy doesn't go anywhere.
3. I start appending "Fuji-" to the beginning of words unrelated to Peruvian politics. Man, I could really go for a Fujirrito about now. Or a Fujiguesa.
Fujimori found guily
About half an hour ago, the Peruvian supreme court found Fujimori guilty of human rights abuses. Sounds like there's been a small confrontation between members of the Peruvian CGTP union peak organization and some Fujimori supporters, but nothing too crazy.
I'm no expert on this stuff--I probably know no more than your average Peruvian campesino (probably less, really), but I think this is desirable, as long as it doesn't result in any violence.
Fujimori's daughter is talking about running for president in the next election--her platform effectively consists of "Free my father--remember what a great president he was?" It doesn't seem to be getting too far with the Peruvian electorate, but down here, Lord only knows what wackiness can occur between now and election time.
I'm no expert on this stuff--I probably know no more than your average Peruvian campesino (probably less, really), but I think this is desirable, as long as it doesn't result in any violence.
Fujimori's daughter is talking about running for president in the next election--her platform effectively consists of "Free my father--remember what a great president he was?" It doesn't seem to be getting too far with the Peruvian electorate, but down here, Lord only knows what wackiness can occur between now and election time.
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