First off, the update is that Fujimori receives 25 years in prison for his role in massacres and kidnappings during his rule. He's 70 now--you can do the math.
No visible sign of the verdict in the part of Lima I'm in, although many people were intently watching the sentencing when I was in the airport this morning. I also should note that I'm not in a part of the capital where you'd expect protests to break out. But it does look as though all is calm here. Papers aren't reporting anything sketchy. Always good.
If you're inclined to read up on the case, you can check out the (rather well documented) wikipedia page here. The short version of the story is this:
1. Alan García gets elected to the presidency in 1985. During his presidency, a few bad things happen. First, the Shining Path really kicks into gear. Second, El Niño kicks into gear. Third, inflation hits 7500%. Hard to blame him for El Niño, and there's an argument to be made that the Shining Path really wasn't his fault either, but the inflation was all him.
2. In 1990, two major candidates emerge. First is Peruvian author and all-around nice guy Mario Vargas Llosa. He's nuts. And he runs on a pretty conservative platform. The other candidate is this cute little japanese guy named Fujimori. He runs a campaign that makes him look like a mild-mannered Hugo Chavez. He wins, but (probably because he's effectively running as an independent) he doesn't get a majority of the congress.
3. Once elected, Fujimori implements Jeff Sachs-designed "shock treatment" program that's far more conservative than anything Vargas Llosa ever thought of. It hurts, but it works, bringing inflation under control.
4. People start appending "Fuji-" before every word they can think of. So, you get "Fujishock," "Fujigolpe," etc...
5. Fujimori organizes the "ronderos"--peasant patrols that start to get the Sendero Luminoso uprising under control. The uprising doesn't end until later, but it's on the decline by '92. Incidentally, this is a pretty similar strategy to that followed by, among others, the US in Iraq under the "Sunni Awakening," and the Carrancistas in the Mexican revolution. It worked in all three cases.
6. Fujimori decides that it's hard to run government when congress isn't controlled by your party (what party?), so he disbands congress and writes up a new constitution.
7. Under the new constitution, he's able to run again, so he runs, and wins.
8. The military captures Ariel Gúzman, head of the Sendero.
9. Fujimori runs again and wins in 2000, amidst widespread allegations of fraud.
10. Corruption and human rights scandals break, and Fujimori flees to Japan.
11. He comes back to Chile in 2005, with the idea of running for the Presidency of Peru again in 2006. Chileans arrest him at the airport, and send him home to Peru for trial.
By the way, Alan García is the guy who won the election in 2006, in case you don't remember. Funny how that works. He's about 85 pounds heavier now, as Evo Morales keeps pointing out, but apparently all the ceviche and papas huancaína has led to a better set of policies that has Peru well on the road to economic develoment.
The hard thing about this case is that Fujimori is definitely a complex character, who did a lot of good things (fixing the Peruvian economy, ending the Shining Path uprising), and a lot of bad things (corruption, human rights abuses). Most Peruvians think he should be found guilty, but I don't know enough about the details of the case to have a truly informed opinion. If this were the US, I would say something along the lines of, "but I trust the wisdom of the court system, and believe that the verdict is probably just." But Peru isn't the US, and I wouldn't be willing to vouch for the neutrality (or honesty) of the Peruvian court system.
In the end, though, the significance of the case probably goes beyond the sentence of one individual. Fujimori's trial also might be seen as (a) the end of impunity for corrupt, authoritarian leaders in Peru, or (b) the beginning of the next phase in the Fujimori family's political career.
My predictions (this is the part where I act all English School):
1. Fujimori is put in prison, and serves out most of his sentence.
2. A moderate right-winger wins the next election (Alejandro Toledo?), and Keiko Fujimori's candidacy doesn't go anywhere.
3. I start appending "Fuji-" to the beginning of words unrelated to Peruvian politics. Man, I could really go for a Fujirrito about now. Or a Fujiguesa.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Fujimori found guily
About half an hour ago, the Peruvian supreme court found Fujimori guilty of human rights abuses. Sounds like there's been a small confrontation between members of the Peruvian CGTP union peak organization and some Fujimori supporters, but nothing too crazy.
I'm no expert on this stuff--I probably know no more than your average Peruvian campesino (probably less, really), but I think this is desirable, as long as it doesn't result in any violence.
Fujimori's daughter is talking about running for president in the next election--her platform effectively consists of "Free my father--remember what a great president he was?" It doesn't seem to be getting too far with the Peruvian electorate, but down here, Lord only knows what wackiness can occur between now and election time.
I'm no expert on this stuff--I probably know no more than your average Peruvian campesino (probably less, really), but I think this is desirable, as long as it doesn't result in any violence.
Fujimori's daughter is talking about running for president in the next election--her platform effectively consists of "Free my father--remember what a great president he was?" It doesn't seem to be getting too far with the Peruvian electorate, but down here, Lord only knows what wackiness can occur between now and election time.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Heading out again
I head to Lima tomorrow on a 10:30 flight. Normally, I would take a bus, but as it's a 24 hour ride, and the ticket was on sale (and cheaper than a round-trip bus ticket), I succumbed to luxury and paid up. I'm adding more in the way of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, but until they solve the collective action dilemma which is carbon emissions, I'll make these decisions based on economic, not altruistic, factors.
I'm going to miss the family here. Lucy and Ricardo, my evangelical protestant hosts, have been fantastic to stay with, including connecting me up with some interviews that I wouldn't have gotten otherwise.
I'm also going to miss puffed quinoa cereal, the beautiful Cusco architecture, and the sense of history that pervades the place. I've been asked a couple of times why I like Cusco so much, and there are a couple of reasons, but the one I usually give has to do with history.
Cusco, for those of you who have never been here, is one place everyone should go to. It's made easy by the presence of a bustling tourist trade, it's pretty affordable, and it's not too far away.
Much of the center of the city is literally built on Incan foundations--when the Spanish showed up, they tore down Incan palaces and temples, but were smart enough to leave the foundations in place. Incan stonework is better designed for the occasional earthquake that hits the area.
Cusco was the capital of the Inca Empire. The founders of the empire came from Titicaca, and the story goes, they tried to sink a golden rod--given them by their father, the sun--into the ground as they wandered, until the ground eventually swallowed the rod easily, signifying that that was the place they should settle. The place where the rod eventually sunk is Southwest of the current center of the city, near where my last set of pictures were taken ("Barbecue Time").
Nowadays, you probably see as many gringos in the center of the city as native Peruvians, but if you go a couple of miles outside of the city, you're pretty much seeing life the way if was lived two hundred years ago or more. Some things have changed--cellular phones are pretty common, and growing numbers of villages have electricity, potable water, and (in some cases) sewage, but the houses I've visited have been, for the most part, mud brick homes with dirt floors and holes for windows. Sometimes, they have fiberglass roofs, and sometimes, they still have thatch (or ceramic tile), but the farm animals often share the home with the family, and rural rhythyms still form the backbone of country life. Early to bed, early to rise makes a man... well... parasite-ridden, exhausted, under-educated, and maybe illiterate.
There's a lot of poverty, of course, but there's also a lot of hope. Rural governments are starting to play a strong role in economic development (including promoting industry in a way that Chalmers Johnson would love to see) and there is a lot of optimism. A lot of frustration, and fear, too, but I think things are moving in a good direction.
If all goes well, I'll be back before too long, if only for a couple of days. We'll see how it goes, but I should be back here briefly at the end of April, then on to the Titicaca region, and then on to Bolivia.
Never enough time, but trying to use it as efficiently as I can.
I'm going to miss the family here. Lucy and Ricardo, my evangelical protestant hosts, have been fantastic to stay with, including connecting me up with some interviews that I wouldn't have gotten otherwise.
I'm also going to miss puffed quinoa cereal, the beautiful Cusco architecture, and the sense of history that pervades the place. I've been asked a couple of times why I like Cusco so much, and there are a couple of reasons, but the one I usually give has to do with history.
Cusco, for those of you who have never been here, is one place everyone should go to. It's made easy by the presence of a bustling tourist trade, it's pretty affordable, and it's not too far away.
Much of the center of the city is literally built on Incan foundations--when the Spanish showed up, they tore down Incan palaces and temples, but were smart enough to leave the foundations in place. Incan stonework is better designed for the occasional earthquake that hits the area.
Cusco was the capital of the Inca Empire. The founders of the empire came from Titicaca, and the story goes, they tried to sink a golden rod--given them by their father, the sun--into the ground as they wandered, until the ground eventually swallowed the rod easily, signifying that that was the place they should settle. The place where the rod eventually sunk is Southwest of the current center of the city, near where my last set of pictures were taken ("Barbecue Time").
Nowadays, you probably see as many gringos in the center of the city as native Peruvians, but if you go a couple of miles outside of the city, you're pretty much seeing life the way if was lived two hundred years ago or more. Some things have changed--cellular phones are pretty common, and growing numbers of villages have electricity, potable water, and (in some cases) sewage, but the houses I've visited have been, for the most part, mud brick homes with dirt floors and holes for windows. Sometimes, they have fiberglass roofs, and sometimes, they still have thatch (or ceramic tile), but the farm animals often share the home with the family, and rural rhythyms still form the backbone of country life. Early to bed, early to rise makes a man... well... parasite-ridden, exhausted, under-educated, and maybe illiterate.
There's a lot of poverty, of course, but there's also a lot of hope. Rural governments are starting to play a strong role in economic development (including promoting industry in a way that Chalmers Johnson would love to see) and there is a lot of optimism. A lot of frustration, and fear, too, but I think things are moving in a good direction.
If all goes well, I'll be back before too long, if only for a couple of days. We'll see how it goes, but I should be back here briefly at the end of April, then on to the Titicaca region, and then on to Bolivia.
Never enough time, but trying to use it as efficiently as I can.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Friday, April 3, 2009
Down with farm subsidies!
Our handsome and well-dressed president deserves credit for trying to get rid of our ridiculous farm subsidies: check out the NY Times article here.
I was just having a conversation with a Peruvian guy here who is something of a dependencista--believes that the rich countries are extracting the wealth of Peru and not permitting Peru to develop, so that we can stay rich ourselves. He's pretty deterministic about it, and I don't agree, of course, with the deterministic type of dependency theory. However, you can see his point, to a degree.
One good example of this is US agricultural policy. The US wants "free trade," but free trade would consist of Peruvian agricultural producers competing with heavily subsidized US agricultural products--corn, wheat, and rice. The Peruvian government, of course, can't afford to subsidize Peruvian agriculture the way we can in teh US, so they get the short end of the stick--and maybe a lot of people get driven out of business and into (even worse) poverty.
"Free" trade? "Fair" trade?
Of course, it puts another twist on the complaints a lot of US citizens have about NAFTA--the Mexicans have a lot of the same complaints. That isn't to say that I'm opposed to free trade--but if it's going to be free, it really needs to be free.
And by the way, it should be accompanied by deeper political institutions that ensure nobody gains an advantage by exploiting child labor, slave labor, or other forms of exploitation.
I was just having a conversation with a Peruvian guy here who is something of a dependencista--believes that the rich countries are extracting the wealth of Peru and not permitting Peru to develop, so that we can stay rich ourselves. He's pretty deterministic about it, and I don't agree, of course, with the deterministic type of dependency theory. However, you can see his point, to a degree.
One good example of this is US agricultural policy. The US wants "free trade," but free trade would consist of Peruvian agricultural producers competing with heavily subsidized US agricultural products--corn, wheat, and rice. The Peruvian government, of course, can't afford to subsidize Peruvian agriculture the way we can in teh US, so they get the short end of the stick--and maybe a lot of people get driven out of business and into (even worse) poverty.
"Free" trade? "Fair" trade?
Of course, it puts another twist on the complaints a lot of US citizens have about NAFTA--the Mexicans have a lot of the same complaints. That isn't to say that I'm opposed to free trade--but if it's going to be free, it really needs to be free.
And by the way, it should be accompanied by deeper political institutions that ensure nobody gains an advantage by exploiting child labor, slave labor, or other forms of exploitation.
Globalización and Local Markets
Yesterday, I was walking down Avenida Garcilaso here in Cusco, stepping around indigenous women in traditional clothing selling bootleg DVDs on blankets on the street, and I got thinking about the kinds of imported goods which make their way here to Cusco, versus the things that don't. In some ways, it's amazing what you can get here, but it's also remarkable how imperfect markets sometimes are here.
Why, for example, is it easy to buy Japanese-made rice cookers in the grocery store, but impossible to find a Crock Pot (in Cusco, the beef is the toughest I have ever had. God only knows, they need Crock Pots here!)
Why is it next-to-impossible to find Mexican-style tortillas, but simple to find bread products from the amusingly-named Mexican bread company "Bimbo"?
Why does Guinea Pig cost 45 soles (about $15 US) in the center of town, but about 5 soles (about $1.75) five blocks away?
Why, on God's green earth, can I buy imported rice from Asia and the jungle here in Cusco, but cannot buy puffed Quinoa cereal in Lima?
Why, for example, is it easy to buy Japanese-made rice cookers in the grocery store, but impossible to find a Crock Pot (in Cusco, the beef is the toughest I have ever had. God only knows, they need Crock Pots here!)
Why is it next-to-impossible to find Mexican-style tortillas, but simple to find bread products from the amusingly-named Mexican bread company "Bimbo"?
Why does Guinea Pig cost 45 soles (about $15 US) in the center of town, but about 5 soles (about $1.75) five blocks away?
Why, on God's green earth, can I buy imported rice from Asia and the jungle here in Cusco, but cannot buy puffed Quinoa cereal in Lima?
Participatory Fora
Being as I'm out of people to interview up in Pucyura, but I don't fly out of belly-buttonville until Tuesday, I've been doing a little bit of writing, trying to get started on this "participatory forum" stuff that I'm supposedly supposed to be researching. I feel like I've made some progress on that front--I've written about some of these ideas before, so I won't repeat them in depth, but I feel like I have a pretty good handle on the way these fora function:
* transmitting information to politicians about citizens' needs and preferences
* transmitting information to citizens about politicians' performance
* promoting changes in local political culture)
...and why they're created:
* to bind successors to a given set of policies
* to promote transparency in order to convince voters that you're really not the crook that they assume all politicians to be
* to promote the development of local industry based on ninja fighting skills and the production of high-quality, locally manufactured cheeses
So now that I've got that all figured out, and have a little bit of evidence, all I have to do is write it up, right?
* transmitting information to politicians about citizens' needs and preferences
* transmitting information to citizens about politicians' performance
* promoting changes in local political culture)
...and why they're created:
* to bind successors to a given set of policies
* to promote transparency in order to convince voters that you're really not the crook that they assume all politicians to be
* to promote the development of local industry based on ninja fighting skills and the production of high-quality, locally manufactured cheeses
So now that I've got that all figured out, and have a little bit of evidence, all I have to do is write it up, right?
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Ward Wins
Mmm... One dollar...
In related news, Emily tells me in a post-trial news conference, Lane, his lawyer, claims that they will sue again if he is treated poorly by the university, including (among other things) if he receives an office in the basement.
You guys all remember where Ward's office was before, right?
And do we not all agree that in Ketchum, the floor with mid-August sub-90 degree temperatures and a men's bathroom is not the least desirable place in the building? Maybe he would prefer 401?
In related news, Emily tells me in a post-trial news conference, Lane, his lawyer, claims that they will sue again if he is treated poorly by the university, including (among other things) if he receives an office in the basement.
You guys all remember where Ward's office was before, right?
And do we not all agree that in Ketchum, the floor with mid-August sub-90 degree temperatures and a men's bathroom is not the least desirable place in the building? Maybe he would prefer 401?
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Globalization, migration, and the peasant economy.
I've often wondered if the great urban in-migration you see around Latin America is a result of free trade and other pieces of economic globalization. While the shantytowns around Lima grow, in some places in rural Peru, the female to male ratio is eight to one, as all the men have moved away to get better paying jobs in the city.
The optimistic explanation for this is that, although life in the shantytowns of Lima is very hard, insecure, and unhealthy, it's a damn sight better than the life of the rural peasant, tilling the fields out in the sun, rain, and wind all year. Thus, people get away to find a better life.
On the other hand, if you're or a pessimist (or a hippie) you probably think it's ol' man globalization rearing his pasty white head--low-priced agricultural imports driving local agriculture out of business, and forcing the producers to the city to support their families. Though city life is terrible, it's the only option many people have to keep from starving. In the second scenario, globalization may be a strong countervailing force against human and economic development.
Although the second scenario is kind of attractive because it's slightly counter-intuitive yet compelling, I've come to believe more strongly in the first story. Although many rural Peruvians are market-oriented, most peasants in the most rural (and poorest) parts of the country--the places where there has been a large amount of migration to the cities--mostly produce only for their families. Basically, they exist in a subsistence economy.
If this is true, it's awful hard for global economic forces to have any impact on these people at all. Hence, my optimism that rural out-migration is really a desirable phenomenon.
The optimistic explanation for this is that, although life in the shantytowns of Lima is very hard, insecure, and unhealthy, it's a damn sight better than the life of the rural peasant, tilling the fields out in the sun, rain, and wind all year. Thus, people get away to find a better life.
On the other hand, if you're or a pessimist (or a hippie) you probably think it's ol' man globalization rearing his pasty white head--low-priced agricultural imports driving local agriculture out of business, and forcing the producers to the city to support their families. Though city life is terrible, it's the only option many people have to keep from starving. In the second scenario, globalization may be a strong countervailing force against human and economic development.
Although the second scenario is kind of attractive because it's slightly counter-intuitive yet compelling, I've come to believe more strongly in the first story. Although many rural Peruvians are market-oriented, most peasants in the most rural (and poorest) parts of the country--the places where there has been a large amount of migration to the cities--mostly produce only for their families. Basically, they exist in a subsistence economy.
If this is true, it's awful hard for global economic forces to have any impact on these people at all. Hence, my optimism that rural out-migration is really a desirable phenomenon.
Take that, hippies...
The New York Times reports that Uncle Ted's off the hook, because of "prosecutorial misconduct."
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