Peruvian Presidential Elections

While it is true that the presidential elections in Peru are a long way off, candidates have begun to declare their candidacy. While many things frustrate me about the Peruvian electoral system at the local level, the national system is actually pretty good--a simple first-past-the-post system (that is, winner-takes-all, like we have in the states), but with a runoff (a second round election) between the two highest vote-getters a couple of months after the first round of voting. This allows voters to coordinate in the second round, and though it has some flaws (I would actually prefer an STV system, I think), my complaints with the system are pretty minor.

The biggest weaknesses in Peruvian elections actually seem to be internal to political parties (basically, Peruvian political parties are weak and have little grass-roots, community-level organization, though that may be changing). But that's an issue for another time.

The Peruvian Times notes the following public opinion data regarding the race:

According to the Lima-based polling firm Ipsos & Apoyo, 20 percent of respondents are expected to vote for Keiko Fujimori in the next ballot, down two points since January. Luis Castañeda Lossio – currently the mayor of Lima – came in a close second, with 18 percent, followed by Ollanta Humala, with 14 percent. The poll was based on a July 15-17 survey of 1,000 Peruvians, and has a margin of error of 3 percent.

This is worrying, really. Keiko Fujimori doesn't have much of a platform--a vote for her is essentially a vote for her father, as she promises to pardon him if she wins. It also is a vote for traditional clientelist politics, as most supporters of Fujimori, based on personal conversations, are individuals who remember the spending blitzes of Alberto Fujimori's various campaigns, both as president and as dictator, which resulted in high levels of spending in rural areas.

It doesn't help that Alan Garcia, the current president, pretty much ignores rural Peru.

Of this list, I would personally be happiest to see a race between Fujimori and/or Ollanta Humala and Castañeda Lossio, the mayor of Lima. Castañeda's political star is tied to Lima, where he has developed a reputation for relatively effective and clean management. His connection to Lima, however, is a real shame, because an election between either of these two pairings would probably become a race based around traditional Peruvian urban/rural split (or Lima/rest of Peru). He is, however, an evangelical Christian. This means that he might be successful in garnering some rural support based on his religion, and it is probably more likely to help him with evangelicals than hurt him with Catholics.

Ollanta Humala is another case who deserves a full blog posting. Perhaps I'll leave that for next time, lest this blog posting get too long.